Monday, December 8, 2014

47 Seconds is the Current BQ Cutoff

The California International Marathon was held on the weekend. The results have been added to the Boston Qualifier Stats Database. A new Boston Marathon Qualifying Cutoff Time has been estimated to be 47 seconds.

Analysis to date

16 of the top 25 feeder marathons have been analyzed to date. The Berlin Marathon has been excluded from the analysis (until a methodology to more accurately account for it has been developed) See the Trouble with the Berlin Marathon.

Event
2015 Qualifying Year1
2016 Qualifying Year2
Finishers
BQ3
BQ Rate
Finishers
BQ3
BQ Rate
Erie Marathon
978
312
31.9%
959
317
33.1%
St. George Marathon
5,818
1,198
20.6%
5,806
997
17.2%
Portland Marathon
6,945
504
7.3%
6,429
429
6.7%
Twin Cities Marathon
8,855
1,010
11.4%
8,853
1,041
11.8%
Chicago Marathon
38,854
3,527
9.1%
40,581
4,004
9.9%
Steamtown Marathon
2,165
377
17.4%
2,184
431
19.7%
Baystate Marathon
1,304
301
23.1%
1,531
378
24.7%
Columbus Marathon
5,523
611
11.1%
5,445
620
11.4%
Marine Corps Marathon
23,385
1,170
5.0%
19,687
718
3.6%
Indianapolis Monumental Marathon
3,521
518
14.7%
3,725
594
15.9%
New York City Marathon
50,134
3,980
7.9%
50,433
3,629
7.2%
Richmond Marathon
4,842
441
9.1%
5,095
520
10.2%
Philadelphia Marathon
10,914
1,341
12.3%
10,333
1,337
12.9%
California Int’l Marathon
6,238
1,292
20.7%
5,793
1,291
22.3%
Total
169,476
16,582
9.8%
166,854
16,306
9.8%
Notes:
1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014.
2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014.
3) BQ indicates people who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard by age and gender

Greater than 105% of Previous Year's Value

Within 5% of Previous Year's Value

Less than 95% of Previous Year's Value

The California International Marathon had 445 fewer runners this year than previous; however, there was only 1 less person who met the Minimum Boston Qualifying Time Standard. This increased the BQ Rate (the percentage of people meeting the minimum standard) to 22.3% for that race. That is the 3rd highest BQ Rate of the feeder marathons so far. Baystate and Erie Marathons having higher qualifying rates. The average of all the feeder marathons is much lower at 9.8%. The California Marathon has more than twice the normal BQ rates than the other marathons. Here's how they stack up against each other.


Breakdown of Stats to date by Age Group

Here is the data by age group for all the feeder marathons analyzed to date.


2015 Qualifying Year
2016 Qualifying Year
Age Group
 Finishers
 BQ
 BQ2015
 Finishers
 BQ
 BQ2015
F18-24
 6,091
 472
 442
 6,135
 510
 473
F25-29
 13,211
 1,059
 999
 12,933
 1,101
 1,031
F30-34
 13,390
 1,062
 990
 12,984
 1,039
 973
F35-39
 12,328
 1,186
 1,101
 12,300
 1,143
 1,077
F40-44
 11,369
 1,153
 1,073
 11,528
 1,128
 1,045
F45-49
 7,617
 1,122
 1,059
 7,980
 1,098
 1,026
F50-54
 5,097
 708
 668
 5,264
 675
 622
F55-59
 2,365
 336
 325
 2,662
 362
 339
F60-64
 990
 143
 134
 1,077
 167
 156
F65-69
 302
 42
 38
 349
 51
 50
F70-74
 87
 10
 10
 112
 15
 14
F75-79
 13
 1
 1
 24
 1
 1
F80+
 4
 2
 1
 5
 3
 3
M18-24
 5,256
 399
 376
 4,763
 399
 378
M25-29
 10,977
 961
 908
 10,233
 894
 838
M30-34
 14,619
 994
 920
 13,867
 1,054
 987
M35-39
 15,543
 1,204
 1,112
 15,000
 1,114
 1,028
M40-44
 16,817
 1,413
 1,290
 16,047
 1,285
 1,182
M45-49
 12,941
 1,551
 1,446
 12,892
 1,546
 1,440
M50-54
 10,212
 1,228
 1,136
 10,068
 1,243
 1,143
M55-59
 5,564
 779
 742
 5,804
 741
 701
M60-64
 3,020
 472
 448
 3,017
 461
 445
M65-69
 1,108
 190
 182
 1,228
 198
 186
M70-74
 417
 83
 79
 441
 64
 61
M75-79
 103
 10
 9
 114
 10
 9
M80+
 35
 2
 2
 27
 4
 4
Total
169,476
16,582
15,491
166,854
16,306
15,212
Notes:
1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014.
2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014.
3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard for their age and gender
4) BQ2015 indicates the number of people who were under the cut-off for the 2015 Boston Marathon. The cut-off was 1minute and 2 seconds below BQ standard.
5) The Value BQ2015 under 2016 Qualifying Year header is used for comparison purposes. It indicates the number of people who ran a race in the 2016 qualifying year that had a time under the 2015 cut-off.


General Trends

The number of total finishers in the feeder races is slightly less for the 2016 qualifying year versus the 2015 qualifying year. The number of people meeting the minimum BQ Standard and the 2015 cutoff (1m2s) is also lower for the 2016 qualifying year. This would indicate that the BQ cutoff would be less than 1m2s.

BQ Cutoff for 2016 Marathon

Assumptions:
  1. Motivation to apply for the Boston Marathon remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
  2. The proportion of applicants from the feeder races remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
  3. The feeder races, combined, are an accurate representation of finisher times for most marathons.
  4. The allocation of General Entry slots for the 2015 and 2016 Boston Marathon remains the same.
If the above assumptions hold, then 15,491 people from the feeder marathons analyzed to date met the 2015 Boston Marathon cutoff (1 minute and 2 seconds). This value is higher than the 15,212 who met the BQ Standard minus 1m2s so far this year. This implies there is room for additional entrants, the "cutoff" should be decreased.

What would the cutoff have to be in 2016 to ensure the same number of people would qualify?

The answer is currently 47 seconds.


2015 Qualifying Year
2016 Qualifying Year
Age Group
 Finishers
 BQ
 BQ2015
(@1m2s)
 Finishers
 BQ
 BQ2016 (@47s)
F18-24
 6,091
 472
 442
 6,135
 510
 483
F25-29
 13,211
 1,059
 999
 12,933
 1,101
 1,054
F30-34
 13,390
 1,062
 990
 12,984
 1,039
 993
F35-39
 12,328
 1,186
 1,101
 12,300
 1,143
 1,094
F40-44
 11,369
 1,153
 1,073
 11,528
 1,128
 1,065
F45-49
 7,617
 1,122
 1,059
 7,980
 1,098
 1,042
F50-54
 5,097
 708
 668
 5,264
 675
 633
F55-59
 2,365
 336
 325
 2,662
 362
 347
F60-64
 990
 143
 134
 1,077
 167
 158
F65-69
 302
 42
 38
 349
 51
 51
F70-74
 87
 10
 10
 112
 15
 14
F75-79
 13
 1
 1
 24
 1
 1
F80+
 4
 2
 1
 5
 3
 3
M18-24
 5,256
 399
 376
 4,763
 399
 387
M25-29
 10,977
 961
 908
 10,233
 894
 855
M30-34
 14,619
 994
 920
 13,867
 1,054
 1,005
M35-39
 15,543
 1,204
 1,112
 15,000
 1,114
 1,052
M40-44
 16,817
 1,413
 1,290
 16,047
 1,285
 1,207
M45-49
 12,941
 1,551
 1,446
 12,892
 1,546
 1,464
M50-54
 10,212
 1,228
 1,136
 10,068
 1,243
 1,165
M55-59
 5,564
 779
 742
 5,804
 741
 707
M60-64
 3,020
 472
 448
 3,017
 461
 450
M65-69
 1,108
 190
 182
 1,228
 198
 189
M70-74
 417
 83
 79
 441
 64
 62
M75-79
 103
 10
 9
 114
 10
 9
M80+
 35
 2
 2
 27
 4
 4
Total
169,476
16,582
15,491
166,854
16,306
15,494
Notes:
1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014.
2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014.
3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard for their age and gender
4) BQ2015 indicates the number of people who were under the cut-off for the 2015 Boston Marathon. The cut-off was 1minute and 2 seconds below BQ standard.
5) The Value BQ2016 shows how many people would qualify if the cut-off was set at BQ minus 47 seconds.


As per above, if the cutoff were adjusted to BQ standard minus 47 seconds, 15494 people would qualify which is similar to the 15491 people who qualified the year prior.

Next up

The next marathon in the list of 25 top feeder marathons is the Houston Marathon on January 18, 2015. Last year, there were nearly 7000 finishers.


Update (per request in comments)

Revel Canyon City Marathon
November 15, 2014; Net downhill: -5,134 feet. The next "St. George?"
Note - this event is not factored into the Overall BQ Cutoff trend, as it is not listed as one of the top 25 feeder events, and was not run in 2013. It is interesting to note though, that it has a high BQ Rate, and could influence the BQ cutoff calculation.

 Age Group
PARTICIPANTS
 BQ
 BQ2015
 BQ%
 BQ2015%
 F18-24
 10
 2
 1
20.0%
10.0%
 F25-29
 20
 2
 2
10.0%
10.0%
 F30-34
 30
 4
 4
13.3%
13.3%
 F35-39
 34
 7
 7
20.6%
20.6%
 F40-44
 52
 7
 7
13.5%
13.5%
 F45-49
 51
 20
 18
39.2%
35.3%
 F50-54
 32
 14
 14
43.8%
43.8%
 F55-59
 15
 5
 4
33.3%
26.7%
 F60-64
 6
 1
 1
16.7%
16.7%
 F65-69
 3
 1
 1
33.3%
33.3%
 M18-24
 16
 1
 1
6.3%
6.3%
 M25-29
 19
 3
 3
15.8%
15.8%
 M30-34
 31
 5
 4
16.1%
12.9%
 M35-39
 51
 8
 7
15.7%
13.7%
 M40-44
 62
 10
 8
16.1%
12.9%
 M45-49
 60
 18
 17
30.0%
28.3%
 M50-54
 54
 13
 13
24.1%
24.1%
 M55-59
 36
 8
 8
22.2%
22.2%
 M60-64
 31
 9
 9
29.0%
29.0%
 M65-69
 5
 1
 1
20.0%
20.0%
 M70-74
 5
 2
 2
40.0%
40.0%
 M75-79
 1


0.0%
0.0%
 Total
 624
 141
 132
22.6%
21.2%