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The Houston Marathon was held this past weekend. There were over 7000 finishers: slightly more than last year, but strangely the same number of qualifiers (698). It is the 16th of the 25 top feeder marathons (between now and the cutoff date in September). It is the last of the feeder marathons before Boston itself is run. The 2015 Boston Marathon will no doubt swing the pendulum one way or the other with respect to the projected cutoff for the 2016 Boston cutoff.
Analysis to date
16 of the top 25 feeder marathons have been analyzed to date. The Berlin Marathon has been excluded from the analysis (until a methodology to more accurately account for it has been developed) See the Trouble with the Berlin Marathon.
Event
|
2015 Qualifying
Year1
|
2016 Qualifying
Year2
|
|||||
Finishers
|
BQ3
|
BQ Rate
|
Finishers
|
BQ3
|
BQ Rate
|
||
Erie Marathon
|
978
|
312
|
31.9%
|
959
|
317
|
33.1%
|
|
St. George Marathon
|
5,818
|
1,198
|
20.6%
|
5,806
|
997
|
17.2%
|
|
Portland Marathon
|
6,945
|
504
|
7.3%
|
6,429
|
429
|
6.7%
|
|
Twin Cities Marathon
|
8,855
|
1,010
|
11.4%
|
8,853
|
1,041
|
11.8%
|
|
Chicago Marathon
|
38,854
|
3,527
|
9.1%
|
40,581
|
4,004
|
9.9%
|
|
Steamtown Marathon
|
2,165
|
377
|
17.4%
|
2,184
|
431
|
19.7%
|
|
Baystate Marathon
|
1,304
|
301
|
23.1%
|
1,531
|
378
|
24.7%
|
|
Columbus Marathon
|
5,523
|
611
|
11.1%
|
5,445
|
620
|
11.4%
|
|
Marine Corps Marathon
|
23,385
|
1,170
|
5.0%
|
19,687
|
718
|
3.6%
|
|
Indianapolis Monumental Marathon
|
3,521
|
518
|
14.7%
|
3,725
|
594
|
15.9%
|
|
New York City Marathon
|
50,134
|
3,980
|
7.9%
|
50,433
|
3,629
|
7.2%
|
|
Richmond Marathon
|
4,842
|
441
|
9.1%
|
5,095
|
520
|
10.2%
|
|
Philadelphia Marathon
|
10,914
|
1,341
|
12.3%
|
10,333
|
1,337
|
12.9%
|
|
California Int’l Marathon
|
6,238
|
1,292
|
20.7%
|
5,793
|
1,291
|
22.3%
|
|
Houston Marathon
|
6,945
|
698
|
10.1%
|
7,133
|
698
|
9.8%
|
|
Total
|
176,421
|
17,280
|
9.8%
|
173,987
|
17,004
|
9.8%
|
|
Notes:
1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014. 2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014. 3) BQ indicates people who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard by age and gender |
|||||||
Greater than 105% of Previous Year's Value
|
|||||||
Within 5% of Previous Year's Value
|
|||||||
Less than 95% of Previous Year's Value
|
|||||||
The total runners completing the Houston marathon was slightly more this year. But the total number meeting the minimum BQ standard stayed the same.
Breakdown of Stats to date by Age Group
Here is the data by age group for all the feeder marathons analyzed to date.
2015 Qualifying Year
|
2016 Qualifying Year
|
|||||
Age Group
|
Finishers
|
BQ
|
BQ2015
|
Finishers
|
BQ
|
BQ2015
|
F18-24
|
6,253
|
496
|
466
|
6,293
|
531
|
494
|
F25-29
|
13,569
|
1,091
|
1,027
|
13,329
|
1,145
|
1,073
|
F30-34
|
13,873
|
1,098
|
1,023
|
13,479
|
1,074
|
1,006
|
F35-39
|
12,835
|
1,252
|
1,164
|
12,842
|
1,197
|
1,127
|
F40-44
|
11,813
|
1,196
|
1,113
|
12,018
|
1,175
|
1,088
|
F45-49
|
7,921
|
1,166
|
1,101
|
8,298
|
1,145
|
1,068
|
F50-54
|
5,293
|
737
|
695
|
5,478
|
710
|
655
|
F55-59
|
2,450
|
347
|
334
|
2,774
|
376
|
353
|
F60-64
|
1,030
|
146
|
137
|
1,127
|
175
|
164
|
F65-69
|
307
|
44
|
40
|
355
|
53
|
52
|
F70-74
|
89
|
10
|
10
|
116
|
15
|
14
|
F75-79
|
13
|
1
|
1
|
24
|
1
|
1
|
F80+
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
5
|
3
|
3
|
M18-24
|
5,435
|
414
|
389
|
4,924
|
407
|
385
|
M25-29
|
11,411
|
1,000
|
946
|
10,665
|
932
|
872
|
M30-34
|
15,221
|
1,035
|
960
|
14,479
|
1,101
|
1,031
|
M35-39
|
16,224
|
1,242
|
1,147
|
15,686
|
1,165
|
1,073
|
M40-44
|
17,527
|
1,465
|
1,341
|
16,777
|
1,336
|
1,229
|
M45-49
|
13,567
|
1,622
|
1,513
|
13,502
|
1,608
|
1,495
|
M50-54
|
10,728
|
1,289
|
1,189
|
10,554
|
1,303
|
1,202
|
M55-59
|
5,916
|
823
|
780
|
6,159
|
784
|
739
|
M60-64
|
3,190
|
502
|
477
|
3,203
|
479
|
463
|
M65-69
|
1,172
|
200
|
191
|
1,293
|
206
|
194
|
M70-74
|
433
|
86
|
82
|
460
|
68
|
65
|
M75-79
|
109
|
13
|
12
|
120
|
11
|
10
|
M80+
|
38
|
3
|
3
|
27
|
4
|
4
|
Total
|
176,421
|
17,280
|
16,142
|
173,987
|
17,004
|
15,860
|
Notes:
1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014. 2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014.
3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston
Qualifying Standard for their age and gender
4) BQ2015 indicates the number of people who were under the
cut-off for the 2015 Boston Marathon. The cut-off was 1minute and 2 seconds
below BQ standard.
5) The Value BQ2015 under 2016 Qualifying Year header is used for
comparison purposes. It indicates the number of people who ran a race in the
2016 qualifying year that had a time under the 2015 cut-off.
|
||||||
General Trends
The number of total finishers in the feeder races is slightly less for the 2016 qualifying year versus the 2015 qualifying year. The number of people meeting the minimum BQ Standard and the 2015 cutoff (1m2s) is also lower for the 2016 qualifying year. This would indicate that the BQ cutoff would be less than 1m2s.
The number of total finishers in the feeder races is slightly less for the 2016 qualifying year versus the 2015 qualifying year. The number of people meeting the minimum BQ Standard and the 2015 cutoff (1m2s) is also lower for the 2016 qualifying year. This would indicate that the BQ cutoff would be less than 1m2s.
BQ Cutoff for 2016 Marathon
Assumptions:
- Motivation to apply for the Boston Marathon remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
- The proportion of applicants from the feeder races remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
- The feeder races, combined, are an accurate representation of finisher times for most marathons.
- The allocation of General Entry slots for the 2015 and 2016 Boston Marathon remains the same.
If the above assumptions hold, then 16,142 people from the feeder marathons analyzed to date met the 2015 Boston Marathon cutoff (1 minute and 2 seconds). This value is higher than the 15,860 who met the BQ Standard minus 1m2s so far this year. This implies there is room for additional entrants, the "cutoff" should be decreased.
What would the cutoff have to be in 2016 to ensure the same number of people would qualify?
The answer is currently 48 seconds.
2015 Qualifying Year
|
2016 Qualifying Year
|
|||||
Age Group
|
Finishers
|
BQ
|
BQ2015
(@1m2s) |
Finishers
|
BQ
|
BQ2016 (@48s)
|
F18-24
|
6,253
|
496
|
466
|
6,293
|
531
|
504
|
F25-29
|
13,569
|
1,091
|
1,027
|
13,329
|
1,145
|
1,096
|
F30-34
|
13,873
|
1,098
|
1,023
|
13,479
|
1,074
|
1,026
|
F35-39
|
12,835
|
1,252
|
1,164
|
12,842
|
1,197
|
1,144
|
F40-44
|
11,813
|
1,196
|
1,113
|
12,018
|
1,175
|
1,108
|
F45-49
|
7,921
|
1,166
|
1,101
|
8,298
|
1,145
|
1,085
|
F50-54
|
5,293
|
737
|
695
|
5,478
|
710
|
666
|
F55-59
|
2,450
|
347
|
334
|
2,774
|
376
|
361
|
F60-64
|
1,030
|
146
|
137
|
1,127
|
175
|
166
|
F65-69
|
307
|
44
|
40
|
355
|
53
|
53
|
F70-74
|
89
|
10
|
10
|
116
|
15
|
14
|
F75-79
|
13
|
1
|
1
|
24
|
1
|
1
|
F80+
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
5
|
3
|
3
|
M18-24
|
5,435
|
414
|
389
|
4,924
|
407
|
393
|
M25-29
|
11,411
|
1,000
|
946
|
10,665
|
932
|
889
|
M30-34
|
15,221
|
1,035
|
960
|
14,479
|
1,101
|
1,048
|
M35-39
|
16,224
|
1,242
|
1,147
|
15,686
|
1,165
|
1,097
|
M40-44
|
17,527
|
1,465
|
1,341
|
16,777
|
1,336
|
1,252
|
M45-49
|
13,567
|
1,622
|
1,513
|
13,502
|
1,608
|
1,519
|
M50-54
|
10,728
|
1,289
|
1,189
|
10,554
|
1,303
|
1,223
|
M55-59
|
5,916
|
823
|
780
|
6,159
|
784
|
746
|
M60-64
|
3,190
|
502
|
477
|
3,203
|
479
|
468
|
M65-69
|
1,172
|
200
|
191
|
1,293
|
206
|
197
|
M70-74
|
433
|
86
|
82
|
460
|
68
|
66
|
M75-79
|
109
|
13
|
12
|
120
|
11
|
10
|
M80+
|
38
|
3
|
3
|
27
|
4
|
4
|
Total
|
176,421
|
17,280
|
16,142
|
173,987
|
17,004
|
16,139
|
Notes:
1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014. 2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014.
3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston
Qualifying Standard for their age and gender
4) BQ2015 indicates the number of people who were under the
cut-off for the 2015 Boston Marathon. The cut-off was 1minute and 2 seconds
below BQ standard.
5) The Value BQ2016 shows how many people would qualify if the
cut-off was set at BQ minus 48 seconds.
|
||||||
As per above, if the cutoff were adjusted to BQ standard minus 48 seconds, 16,139 people would qualify which is similar to the 16,142 people who qualified the year prior. (If it were 47 seconds... then 16153 people would get in).
