Wednesday, September 30, 2015

It's official 2:28 was the cutoff.

Wow.


The rejection letter...




From BAA (http://www.baa.org/news-and-press/news-listing/2015/september/2016-boston-marathon-qualifier-acceptances.aspx):
 Notification to applicants on Wednesday, September 30

BOSTON – The Boston Athletic Association (B.A.A.) today continued its notification to applicants of their acceptance into the 2016 Boston Marathon®. In preparation for the 2016 Boston Marathon, the B.A.A. implemented the same registration process for qualified runners as it used in the 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 Marathons, allowing the fastest qualifiers to register first. The 120th Boston Marathon will be held on Monday, April 18, 2016 and will mark the 31st consecutive year that the event will have John Hancock Financial as its principal sponsor.

In cooperation with the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and the eight cities and towns along the Boston Marathon route, the B.A.A. has set the field size for the 2016 Boston Marathon at 30,000 official entrants. More than 80% of the field will be comprised of athletes who have met the qualifying standards. The balance will consist of invitational entrants, many of whom run for local charitable organizations. Since 1989, between the B.A.A.’s Official Charity Program and principal sponsor John Hancock Financial’s Non-Profit Bib Program for the Boston Marathon, more than $234 million has been raised for charity. 

Registration for runners who met the B.A.A.’s Qualifying Standards for the 2016 Boston Marathon began on Monday, September 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET using a “rolling admission” schedule and continued through Saturday, September 19 at 10:00 p.m. ET. Registration re-opened on Monday, September 21 at 10:00 a.m. and application submissions were received through Wednesday, September 23 at 5:00 p.m. ET.

Qualifiers who were two minutes, 28 seconds (2:28) or faster than the Qualifying time for their age group and gender were accepted into the 2016 Boston Marathon.

    28,594 applications were received during the registration period for qualifiers.
    24,032 Qualified applicants have been accepted to date or are in the process of being accepted, pending verification of their qualifying performance.
    4,562 applicants were unable to be accepted due to the large number of eligible qualifiers who submitted an application for entry combined with field size limitations.
    Details of the B.A.A.’s registration process for Qualifiers can be found on the following web page: http://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/participant-information/athlete-registration.aspx

During the registration period, the breakdown of accepted Qualifiers was as follows:

    4,744 Qualifiers met their qualifying time by 20 minutes, 00 seconds or faster.
    7,495 Qualifiers met their qualifying time by 10 minutes, 00 seconds or faster.
    6,849 Qualifiers met their qualifying time by 05 minutes, 00 seconds or faster.
    4,540 Qualifiers met their qualifying time by 02 minutes, 28 seconds or faster.
    404 Qualifiers were accepted based on finishing 10 or more consecutive Boston Marathons.

During the second week of registration, 5,252 Qualifiers were accepted.

Those who submitted a verified qualifying performance that was 2 minutes, 28 seconds or faster than the qualifying standard for their age and gender have been accepted into the race. Qualifying performances for the 2016 Boston Marathon must have been run between September 13, 2014 and September 19, 2015.  Notices via e-mail to those accepted will be issued by the B.A.A. beginning today.

Of the registered athletes, 404 Qualifiers who have an active streak of ten or more consecutive Boston Marathons completed entered during a pre-registration period in August and have been accepted. In the coming months, qualified elite athletes and athletes with disabilities will be added to the field.

For reference, Qualifiers needed to be one minute, 02 seconds or faster for their age group and gender for the 2015 Boston Marathon, and one minute, 38 seconds or faster for their age group and gender for the 2014 Boston Marathon.  
16 comments:

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Whatever will be, will be


Thank you all for your kind words over the course of this blog, and especially the last week.

To all us squeakers, we will find out tomorrow.

I'm confident I know which of the two emails BAA will be sending me. There will be more runs in the future.

Congratulations everyone.

9 comments:

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Bonus Stats - Year vs Minutes to Spare



Here's some additional data (you might need to click the image to make it clearer). Of all the finishers of the Feeder Races (minus Berlin, because I still think that's an outlier), here are the breakdowns of how many people finished per cutoff category.

As you can clearly see, for races run this year vs last year, despite fewer total finishers, more people beat the various cutoffs.

Bonus Update - with the last 5 minutes expanded in 15 second intervals (from the data pool of 24 feeder marathons)


FAQ
Believe it or not, I started this thing as a way to ease my mind. I had the post-marathon depression, and needed something to occupy my time. I had a BQ with 67 seconds in the bank, and I wanted to try and prove to myself that I would get in. ... this data exercise has morphed into something much larger. With nearly 100,000 views, I did not expect this blog to get so much attention.

Q1. How accurate were you in predicting last year's cutoff?
A1. I did not do this exercise last year

Q2. Can you run the numbers for last year and see how close your method would be?
A2. No Friggin way! It has taken hours and hours and hours to assemble all the finisher data so far. It would be a neat project, if you want to pay me to do, I will consider it :-)

Q3. Do you still think your method is correct?
A3. Yes. Based on the assumptions; however, the biggest assumption is that the same proportion of people apply for Boston as did last year - I do not know if that is true or not; moreover, I do not know if more Faster people are applying this year vs last year.

Q4. Do you still think the cutoff will be 91 seconds?
A4. No. I think it will be closer to 2 minutes and 10 seconds. [Edit to add: I think it was a mistake to carry the Berlin Marathon through the analysis. It was clearly an outlier, and although listed as one of the top feeder races, is likely not proportionally representative of the BAA application field. The analysis without Berlin is probably accurate, hence my 2:10 prediction].

Q5. Are you going to do this next year?
A5. No!

Q6. What about Erie and Lehigh and marathon X that are "double-qualifiers"?
A6. Yes, I know about that. I only counted them once. Yes, it might be a source of error. But: These marathons were also "double-qualifiers" the year before so by only counting them once and comparing them against each other, I think it smooths the results and keeps a consistent methodology.

Q7. What about people who "age-up"? (i.e. were 44 when they qualified, but are running Boston as a 45 year old - hence different standard)
A7. Yes, again, a source of error... But: The methodology is applied consistently, and there would have been people who "aged-up" the previous year too. As long as the same percentage of people "age-up" across categories, this error will smooth itself out.

Q8. Can I get a copy of all your data?
A8. I'm not sure. Technically I think it is copyrighted by the various races and/or timing companies. I have "screen-scaped" it into a nice tidy database for my own use, which I'm pretty sure is not in contravention of the copyright laws.  Perhaps I can send it to you with names removed? I don't know. It's a large data file with over 500,000 records. Let me think about it and I'll get back to you.

And now, let me ask you this... I've seen my blog posted on Facebook and Forums. Every time, people refer to me as "he". Why is this? ;-)






37 comments:

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Final Projected Boston Marathon 2016 Cutoff at 91 seconds*


With all of the top 25 feeder marathons complete, the current trend for the 2016 Boston Marathon Cutoff is 91 seconds (90 if you're an optimist).

 *Or, it could be higher (see the heading "Dirty Little Secret")

The Caveats:
The analysis assumes a lot of assumptions. I have outlined the objective and methodology on this page. Basically, I look at the number of people who qualified for the 2015 race, using the "feeder marathons". To qualify for the 2015 race, participants needed a BQ minus 1m2s. These races were all run last year. I then look at the same races for this year, and see how many people would qualify using the same cutoff.  If fewer people qualify, then I decrease the cutoff (make it easier to qualify), until the same number of people qualify as did last year. Conversely, if more people make the 1m2s cutoff than last year, I increase the cutoff (making it harder to qualify) until the same number of people qualify.


Table 1: Year vs Year, By Marathon
2015 Qualifying Year2016 Qualifying Year
MarathonFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
Big Cottonwood1,30826224419 %1,52728425217 %
Erie 97831228029 %95931728930 %
Berlin 36,1225,7695,45515 %29,0274,5304,30815 %
St. George 5,8181,1981,13720 %5,80699793916 %
Twin Cities 8,8551,01095311 %8,8531,04196711 %
Portland 6,9455044707 %6,4294293956 %
Chicago 38,8543,5273,3149 %40,5814,0043,7629 %
Steamtown 2,16537735917 %2,18443140819 %
Columbus 5,52361156110 %5,44562058111 %
Toronto Waterfront 3,60448745313 %3,97165460115 %
Baystate 1,30430127121 %1,53137835023 %
Marine Corps 23,3851,1701,0735 %19,6877186623 %
New York City 50,1343,9803,7257 %50,4333,6293,4007 %
Indianapolis Mon'tal 3,52151848314 %3,72559455215 %
Richmond 4,8424414189 %5,09552048710 %
Philadelphia 10,9141,3411,25211 %10,3331,3371,23512 %
California International 6,2381,2921,19519 %5,7931,2911,18520 %
Houston 6,9456986519 %7,1336986489 %
Boston 31,21010,56410,04632 %26,63512,79212,21846 %
Bayshore2,01731430015 %2,00834132916 %
Ottawa5,32481274514 %4,50180675017 %
Mountains 2 Beach1,61739937023 %1,58645241926 %
Grandma's 6,1731,1081,04717 %6,0751,1341,06618 %
Santa Rosa1,23125822218 %1,43634131822 %
Lehigh Valley1,13923521519 %91818616818 %
TOTAL266,16637,48835,23913 %251,67138,52436,28914 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.

Analysis
Looking at the table above: 266,166 runners finished a 2015 "feeder" qualifying race, whereas 251,671 finished a 2016 "feeder" race: 14,495 fewer people. However, more people met the minimum BQ standard 38,524 for the 2016 qualifying year versus 37,488 for the 2015 qualifying year. Moreover, 1050 more people met the 1 minute and 2 second cutoff in the 2016 qualifying year so far than did in 2015.

Now that the Boston Marathon registration is open - assuming the same proportion of qualified runners apply for the race (see objective and methodology) - there wouldn't be enough spots for everyone. We have to increase the cutoff so that we whittle the 36,289 people (who met the 2015 cutoff in a 2016 qualifying race) down to 35,239 the number of people who met the Cutoff for 2015.

Through a numerical modelling approach, the answer to the solution, of what the cutoff should be becomes 91 seconds.

At 91 seconds, 35,230 people will make it into the marathon. (only 9 fewer than this year). For the optimists, at 90 seconds: 35,266 people will make it (27 more than last year).

Table 2: Projected qualifiers, from this years races, by AG based on an 91 second cutoff.
AGFeeder Race FinishersFinishers who met minimum BQBQ minus 91s% of AG meeting BQ minus 91s% of Total Boston 2016 Field
F18-34 42,914 5,437 4,975 12% 14%
F35-39 17,300 2,551 2,348 14% 7%
F40-44 16,693 2,578 2,320 14% 7%
F45-49 12,459 2,618 2,375 19% 7%
F50-54 8,244 1,644 1,510 18% 4%
F55-59 4,127 888 823 20% 2%
F60-64 1,690 400 379 22% 1%
F65-69 542 116 112 21% 0%
F70-74 158 32 30 19% 0%
F75-79 30 5 5 17% 0%
F80+ 6 3 3 50% 0%
M18-34 41,531 5,229 4,832 12% 14%
M35-39 22,569 2,760 2,510 11% 7%
M40-44 25,197 3,303 2,991 12% 8%
M45-49 21,937 4,006 3,653 17% 10%
M50-54 17,314 3,066 2,765 16% 8%
M55-59 10,266 1,965 1,801 18% 5%
M60-64 5,396 1,162 1,080 20% 3%
M65-69 2,253 543 513 23% 1%
M70-74 788 173 163 21% 0%
M75-79 212 35 32 15% 0%
M80+ 45 10 10 22% 0%
Totals 251,671 38,524 35,230 14% 100%

* And now for a dirty little secret...

Dirty Little Secret

As was noted earlier in this analysis, the Berlin Marathon for this year appears to be a large outlier, with a massive influence on the cutoff time. It is keeping the cutoff lower than it probably should be.

2015 Qualifying Year2016 Qualifying Year
MarathonFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
All 25 Feeder Races266,16637,48835,23913 %251,67138,52436,28914 %
(Minus) Berlin 36,1225,7695,45515 %29,0274,5304,30815 %
New TOTAL230,04431,71929,78413 %222,64433,99431,98114 %

If I run the numerical model again without the Berlin numbers and a new cutoff such that the number of qualifiers is equal to 29,784... the result is ....

... Pause for effect ...

131 seconds (2 minutes and 11 seconds!!!)

Lehigh Valley Marathon Results Comparison 2014 vs 2015

AG2014 Event2015 Event
FinishersBQBQ 2015BQ%FinishersBQBQ 2015BQ%
F18-34179413723 %144252317 %
F35-3993242326 %73111515 %
F40-4467141421%6516625 %
F45-4959101017 %488617 %
F50-54385513 %348524 %
F55-59245521 %175829 %
F60-6452240 %101110 %
F65-6954480 %62233 %
F70-74
0 %0 %
F75-790 %0 %
F80+0 %0 %
M18-34194393320 %134302622 %
M35-3996211922 %96181619 %
M40-4492151516 %80131216 %
M45-4992181620 %77222229 %
M50-5488121014 %649714 %
M55-5959131222 %37121132 %
M60-64358623 %234417 %
M65-69134431 %72229 %
M70-74
0 %3000 %
M75-79


0 %
0 %
M80+


0 %


0 %
Total1,13923521521 %91818616820 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ% = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Marathon Standard.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
46 comments:

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Field size set at 30,000

Field size will be 30,000 official entrants for the 120th running of event.

BOSTON -- Registration for the 2016 Boston Marathon opens on Monday, September 14, 2015 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The B.A.A. will use the same process to register qualified runners as it used in the 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 Boston Marathons, allowing the fastest qualifiers to register first.BOSTON -- Registration for the 2016 Boston Marathon opens on Monday, September 14, 2015 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The B.A.A. will use the same process to register qualified runners as it used in the 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 Boston Marathons, allowing the fastest qualifiers to register first.

The 2013 Boston Marathon had 27,000 official entrants, the special 118th Boston Marathon in 2014 featured a larger field size of 36,000 entrants, and the 2015 Boston Marathon had a field size of 30,000 official entrants.

More: http://www.baa.org/news-and-press/news-listing/2015/september/registration-for-the-2016-boston-marathon-opens-monday-september-14.aspx

13 comments:

Monday, August 24, 2015

Santa Rosa Marathon sways Boston Cutoff

UPDATED! The analysis has been updated. The latest analysis is available here: http://boston-qualifier-stats.blogspot.ca/2015/09/final-projected-boston-marathon-2016.html


With 24 of the top 25 feeder marathons complete, the current trend for the 2016 Boston Marathon Cutoff is 93 seconds (92 if you're an optimist). The Santa Rosa Marathon had 205 more finishers this year than last, and an additional 96 people who met the 1m2s cutoff from last year. With a field of 1400 runners this year, this medium sized marathon surprisingly was able to influence the BQ cutoff trend quite significantly (+3 seconds).

Only 1 more left, the infamous Mike Rossi Marathon... Lehigh.

The Caveats:
The analysis assumes a lot of assumptions. I have outlined the objective and methodology on this page. Basically, I look at the number of people who qualified for the 2015 race, using the "feeder marathons". To qualify for the 2015 race, participants needed a BQ minus 1m2s. These races were all run last year. I then look at the same races for this year, and see how many people would qualify using the same cutoff.  If fewer people qualify, then I decrease the cutoff (make it easier to qualify), until the same number of people qualify as did last year. Conversely, if more people make the 1m2s cutoff than last year, I increase the cutoff (making it harder to qualify) until the same number of people qualify.


Table 1: Year vs Year, By Marathon
2015 Qualifying Year2016 Qualifying Year
MarathonFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
Big Cottonwood1,30826224419 %1,52728425217 %
Erie 97831228029 %95931728930 %
Berlin 36,1225,7695,45515 %29,0274,5304,30815 %
St. George 5,8181,1981,13720 %5,80699793916 %
Twin Cities 8,8551,01095311 %8,8531,04196711 %
Portland 6,9455044707 %6,4294293956 %
Chicago 38,8543,5273,3149 %40,5814,0043,7629 %
Steamtown 2,16537735917 %2,18443140819 %
Columbus 5,52361156110 %5,44562058111 %
Toronto Waterfront 3,60448745313 %3,97165460115 %
Baystate 1,30430127121 %1,53137835023 %
Marine Corps 23,3851,1701,0735 %19,6877186623 %
New York City 50,1343,9803,7257 %50,4333,6293,4007 %
Indianapolis Mon'tal 3,52151848314 %3,72559455215 %
Richmond 4,8424414189 %5,09552048710 %
Philadelphia 10,9141,3411,25211 %10,3331,3371,23512 %
California International 6,2381,2921,19519 %5,7931,2911,18520 %
Houston 6,9456986519 %7,1336986489 %
Boston 31,21010,56410,04632 %26,63512,79212,21846 %
Bayshore2,01731430015 %2,00834132916 %
Ottawa5,32481274514 %4,50180675017 %
Mountains 2 Beach1,61739937023 %1,58645241926 %
Grandma's 6,1731,1081,04717 %6,0751,1341,06618 %
Santa Rosa1,23125822218 %1,43634131822 %
TOTAL265,02737,25335,02413 %250,75338,33836,12114 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.

Analysis
Looking at the table above: 265,027 runners finished a 2015 "feeder" qualifying race, whereas 250,753 finished a 2016 "feeder" race: 14,274 fewer people. However, more people met the minimum BQ standard 38,338 for the 2016 qualifying year versus 37,253 for the 2015 qualifying year. Moreover, 1097 more people met the 1 minute and 2 second cutoff in the 2016 qualifying year so far than did in 2015.

If the Boston Marathon registration opened today - assuming the same proportion of qualified runners apply for the race (see objective and methodology) - there wouldn't be enough spots for everyone. We have to increase the cutoff so that we whittle the 36,121 people (who met the 2015 cutoff in a 2016 qualifying race) down to 35,024 the number of people who met the Cutoff for 2015.

Through a numerical modelling approach, the answer to the solution, of what the cutoff should be becomes 93 seconds.

At 93 seconds, 35,017 people will make it into the marathon. (only 7 fewer than this year). For the optimists, at 92 seconds: 35,039 people will make it (15 more than last year).

Table 2: Projected qualifiers, from this years races, by AG based on an 93 second cutoff.
AGFinishersBQBQ minus 62sBQ minus 93sBQ2016%
F18-3442,7705,4125,0954,94612 %
F35-3917,2272,5402,4012,33214 %
F40-4416,6282,5622,3832,30414 %
F45-4912,4112,6102,4482,36619 %
F50-548,2101,6361,5491,50418 %
F55-594,11088383281820 %
F60-641,68039938237823 %
F65-6953611411211021 %
F70-7415832303019 %
F75-793055517 %
F80+633350 %
M18-3441,3975,1994,9454,80012 %
M35-3922,4732,7422,5652,49111 %
M40-4425,1173,2903,0832,97512 %
M45-4921,8603,9843,7463,62417 %
M50-5417,2503,0572,8552,75416 %
M55-5910,2291,9531,8481,78717 %
M60-645,3731,1581,1091,07420 %
M65-692,24654151951123 %
M70-7478517316716321 %
M75-7921235343215 %
M80+4510101022 %
Total250,75338,33836,12135,01714 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ minus 62s = Number of Runners from this year's races who would have met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ minus 93s = Number of Runners from this year's races who would meet the projected Cutoff for the 2016 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 94s)
4. BQ2016% = Percentage of finishers meeting the projected BQ 20016 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.

Santa Rosa Marathon Results Comparison 2014 vs 2015

AG2014 Event2015 Event
FinishersBQBQ 2015BQ%FinishersBQBQ 2015BQ%
F18-34209433121 %225575425 %
F35-3986212124 %94222123 %
F40-44769712 %81191723 %
F45-4980222228 %87252229 %
F50-5452131325 %62121219 %
F55-59268431 %359826 %
F60-64101110 %136646 %
F65-6930 %72229 %
F70-7410 %0 %
F75-790 %0 %
F80+0 %0 %
M18-34179322718 %212515024 %
M35-3998141314 %106161315 %
M40-44100221622 %125262221 %
M45-49103252424 %126312925 %
M50-5486202023 %116282724 %
M55-5969151222 %83212025 %
M60-643311933 %37101027 %
M65-69100 %194321 %
M70-7450 %51120 %
M75-7941125 %20 %
M80+111100 %111100 %
Total1,23125822221 %1,43634131824 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ% = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Marathon Standard.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.

9 comments:

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Grandma's keeps Boston Cutoff at 90 seconds

UPDATED! The analysis has been updated. The latest analysis is available here: http://boston-qualifier-stats.blogspot.ca/2015/08/santa-rosa-marathon-sways-boston-cutoff.html


With 23 of the top 25 feeder marathons complete, the current trend for the 2016 Boston Marathon Cutoff is 90 seconds. Grandma's marathon, with over 6000 participants is a big enough marathon to impact the Boston Marathon projected cutoff. This year's edition had similar results as last year. There were 100 fewer finishers, but 19 more people who beat the 1m2s cutoff from the 2015 Boston Marathon. Since the results were similar to last year, this kept the projected cutoff at 90 seconds.

Only 2 more left (Santa Rosa and Lehigh).


The Caveats:
The analysis assumes a lot of assumptions. I have outlined the objective and methodology on this page. Basically, I look at the number of people who qualified for the 2015 race, using the "feeder marathons". To qualify for the 2015 race, participants needed a BQ minus 1m2s. These races were all run last year. I then look at the same races for this year, and see how many people would qualify using the same cutoff.  If fewer people qualify, then I decrease the cutoff (make it easier to qualify), until the same number of people qualify as did last year. Conversely, if more people make the 1m2s cutoff than last year, I increase the cutoff (making it harder to qualify) until the same number of people qualify.


Table 1: Year vs Year, By Marathon
2015 Qualifying Year2016 Qualifying Year
MarathonFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
Big Cottonwood1,30826224419 %1,52728425217 %
Erie 97831228029 %95931728930 %
Berlin 36,1225,7695,45515 %29,0274,5304,30815 %
St. George 5,8181,1981,13720 %5,80699793916 %
Twin Cities 8,8551,01095311 %8,8531,04196711 %
Portland 6,9455044707 %6,4294293956 %
Chicago 38,8543,5273,3149 %40,5814,0043,7629 %
Steamtown 2,16537735917 %2,18443140819 %
Columbus 5,52361156110 %5,44562058111 %
Toronto Waterfront 3,60448745313 %3,97165460115 %
Baystate 1,30430127121 %1,53137835023 %
Marine Corps 23,3851,1701,0735 %19,6877186623 %
New York City 50,1343,9803,7257 %50,4333,6293,4007 %
Indianapolis Mon'tal 3,52151848314 %3,72559455215 %
Richmond 4,8424414189 %5,09552048710 %
Philadelphia 10,9141,3411,25211 %10,3331,3371,23512 %
California International 6,2381,2921,19519 %5,7931,2911,18520 %
Houston 6,9456986519 %7,1336986489 %
Boston 31,21010,56410,04632 %26,63512,79212,21846 %
Bayshore2,01731430015 %2,00834132916 %
Ottawa5,32481274514 %4,50180675017 %
Mountains 2 Beach1,61739937023 %1,58645241926 %
Grandma's 6,1731,1081,04717 %6,0751,1341,06618 %
TOTAL263,79636,99534,80213 %249,31737,99735,80314 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.

Analysis
Looking at the table above: 263,796 runners finished a 2015 "feeder" qualifying race, whereas 249,317 finished a 2016 "feeder" race: 14,479 fewer people. However, more people met the minimum BQ standard 37,997 for the 2016 qualifying year versus 36,995 for the 2015 qualifying year. Moreover, 1001 more people met the 1 minute and 2 second cutoff in the 2016 qualifying year so far than did in 2015.

If the Boston Marathon registration opened today - assuming the same proportion of qualified runners apply for the race (see objective and methodology) - there wouldn't be enough spots for everyone. We have to increase the cutoff so that we whittle the 35,803 people (who met the 2015 cutoff in a 2016 qualifying race) down to 34,802 the number of people who met the Cutoff for 2015.

Through a numerical modelling approach, the answer to the solution, of what the cutoff should be becomes 90 seconds.

At 90 seconds, 34,799 people will make it into the marathon. (only 3 fewer than this year).

Table 2: Projected qualifiers, from this years races, by AG based on an 90 second cutoff.
AGFinishersBQBQ minus 62sBQ minus 90sBQ2016%
F18-3442,5455,3555,0414,90812 %
F35-3917,1332,5182,3802,32114 %
F40-4416,5472,5432,3662,29314 %
F45-4912,3242,5852,4262,35119 %
F50-548,1481,6241,5371,49318 %
F55-594,07587482481320 %
F60-641,66739337637222 %
F65-6952911211010820 %
F70-7415832303019 %
F75-793055517 %
F80+633350 %
M18-3441,1855,1484,8954,76512 %
M35-3922,3672,7262,5522,48311 %
M40-4424,9923,2643,0612,96412 %
M45-4921,7343,9533,7173,60717 %
M50-5417,1343,0292,8282,73316 %
M55-5910,1461,9321,8281,77017 %
M60-645,3361,1481,0991,06820 %
M65-692,22753751650823 %
M70-7478017216616221 %
M75-7921035343316 %
M80+4499920 %
Total249,31737,99735,80334,79914 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ minus 62s = Number of Runners from this year's races who would have met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ minus 90s = Number of Runners from this year's races who would meet the projected Cutoff for the 2016 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 90s)
4. BQ2016% = Percentage of finishers meeting the projected BQ 20016 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
13 comments:

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

90 seconds to Boston

UPDATED! The analysis has been updated. The latest analysis is available here: http://boston-qualifier-stats.blogspot.ca/2015/08/santa-rosa-marathon-sways-boston-cutoff.html

 With 22 of the top 25 feeder marathons complete, the current trend for the 2016 Boston Marathon Cutoff is 90 seconds. (or 91 if you're a pessimist).

Only 3 more left (Grandma's, Santa Rosa and Lehigh).


The Caveats:
The analysis assumes a lot of assumptions. I have outlined the objective and methodology on this page. Basically, I look at the number of people who qualified for the 2015 race, using the "feeder marathons". To qualify for the 2015 race, participants needed a BQ minus 1m2s. These races were all run last year. I then look at the same races for this year, and see how many people would qualify using the same cutoff.  If fewer people qualify, then I decrease to cutoff (make it easier to qualify), until the same number of people qualify as did last year. Conversely, if more people make the 1m2s cutoff than last year, I increase the cutoff (making it harder to qualify) until the same number of people qualify.


Table 1: Year vs Year, By Marathon
2015 Qualifying Year2016 Qualifying Year
MarathonFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
Big Cottonwood1,30826224419 %1,52728425217 %
Erie 97831228029 %95931728930 %
Berlin 36,1225,7695,45515 %29,0274,5304,30815 %
St. George 5,8181,1981,13720 %5,80699793916 %
Twin Cities 8,8551,01095311 %8,8531,04196711 %
Portland 6,9455044707 %6,4294293956 %
Chicago 38,8543,5273,3149 %40,5814,0043,7629 %
Steamtown 2,16537735917 %2,18443140819 %
Columbus 5,52361156110 %5,44562058111 %
Toronto Waterfront 3,60448745313 %3,97165460115 %
Baystate 1,30430127121 %1,53137835023 %
Marine Corps 23,3851,1701,0735 %19,6877186623 %
New York City 50,1343,9803,7257 %50,4333,6293,4007 %
Indianapolis Mon'tal 3,52151848314 %3,72559455215 %
Richmond 4,8424414189 %5,09552048710 %
Philadelphia 10,9141,3411,25211 %10,3331,3371,23512 %
California International 6,2381,2921,19519 %5,7931,2911,18520 %
Houston 6,9456986519 %7,1336986489 %
Boston 31,21010,56410,04632 %26,63512,79212,21846 %
Bayshore2,01731430015 %2,00834132916 %
Ottawa5,32481274514 %4,50180675017 %
Mountains 2 Beach1,61739937023 %1,58645241926 %
TOTAL257,62335,88733,75513 %243,24236,86334,73714 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.

Analysis
Looking at the table above: 257,623 runners finished a 2015 qualifying race, whereas 243,242 finished a 2016 race: 14,000 fewer people. However, more people met the minimum BQ standard 35,499 for the 2016 qualifying year versus 34,729 for the 2015 qualifying year. Moreover, more people met the 1 minute and 2 second cutoff in the 2016 qualifying year so far than did in 2015.

If the Boston Marathon registration opened today - assuming the same proportion of qualified runners apply for the race (see objective and methodology) - there wouldn't be enough spots for everyone. We have to increase the cutoff so that we whittle the 34,737 people (who met the 2015 cutoff in a 2016 qualifying race) down to 33,755 the number of people who met the Cutoff for 2015.

Through a numerical modelling approach, the answer to the solution, of what the cutoff should be becomes 90 seconds.

At 90 seconds, 33,765 people will make it into the marathon. (10 more than this year).

At 91 seconds, 33,731 people will make it into the marathon. (24 fewer than this year)

Table 2: Projected qualifiers by AG based on an 90 second cutoff.
AGFinishersBQBQ2015 @62sBQ2016 @90sBQ2016%
F18-3441,2405,1364,8404,71111 %
F35-3916,7212,4402,3062,24813 %
F40-4416,2252,4762,3022,23014 %
F45-4912,0942,5392,3832,30819 %
F50-547,9421,5721,4861,44318 %
F55-593,97884479878720 %
F60-641,62138336636222 %
F65-6951311110910721 %
F70-7415532303019 %
F75-792844414 %
F80+633350 %
M18-3439,8314,8924,6514,53311 %
M35-3921,8812,6582,4912,42311 %
M40-4424,5743,1952,9962,90112 %
M45-4921,3753,8793,6473,54017 %
M50-5416,7862,9652,7692,67516 %
M55-599,9131,8921,7891,73718 %
M60-645,1831,1131,0651,03420 %
M65-692,16352050049223 %
M70-7476516616015620 %
M75-7920635343316 %
M80+4288819 %
Total243,24236,86334,73733,76514 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2016 = Number of Runners who met the projected Cutoff for the 2016 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 90s)
4. BQ2016% = Percentage of finishers meeting the projected BQ 20016 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.



Other Interesting Numbers:


Combined, to date - Year vs Year Analysis, By Age Group
2015 Qualifying Year2016 Qualifying Year
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-3442,7774,5304,27310 %41,2405,1364,84012 %
F35-3917,2212,3212,17113 %16,7212,4402,30614 %
F40-4416,8302,4232,28414 %16,2252,4762,30214 %
F45-4912,6172,5182,40019 %12,0942,5392,38320 %
F50-548,4691,6391,54718 %7,9421,5721,48619 %
F55-593,90474671218 %3,97884479820 %
F60-641,67033932319 %1,62138336623 %
F65-6951011510721 %51311110921 %
F70-74134232317 %155323019 %
F75-79195526 %284414 %
F80+72114 %63350 %
M18-3443,6314,7844,51710 %39,8314,8924,65112 %
M35-3923,6162,7092,50411 %21,8812,6582,49111 %
M40-4426,7163,3633,14312 %24,5743,1952,99612 %
M45-4922,7733,7793,54716 %21,3753,8793,64717 %
M50-5417,8822,9472,73015 %16,7862,9652,76916 %
M55-5910,1391,8241,72617 %9,9131,8921,78918 %
M60-645,4951,1051,05219 %5,1831,1131,06521 %
M65-692,18849648022 %2,16352050023 %
M70-7477917616822 %76516616021 %
M75-79192373619 %206353417 %
M80+546611 %428819 %
Total257,62335,88733,75513 %243,24236,86334,73714 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.

14 comments:

Friday, May 1, 2015

84 Seconds is the Current Boston Marathon Cutoff Prediction for 2016.


The current trend for the 2016 Boston Marathon Cutoff is 84 seconds. (or 85 if you're a pessimist).


The Caveats:
The analysis assumes a lot of assumptions. I have outlined the objective and methodology on this page. Basically, I look at the number of people who qualified for the 2015 race, using the "feeder marathons". To qualify for the 2015 race, participants needed a BQ minus 1m2s. These races were all run last year. I then look at the same races for this year, and see how many people would qualify using the same cutoff.  If fewer people qualify, then I decrease to cutoff (make it easier to qualify), until the same number of people qualify as did last year. Conversely, if more people make the 1m2s cutoff than last year, I increase the cutoff (making it harder to qualify) until the same number of people qualify.

When I first Started...
...the list of 25 feeder marathons posted on the BAA website was different than it is now. I have updated my analysis to use the currently posted marathons. And to that, 20 individual marathon analyses are included at the end of this post.

The Big Wrench...
...in the analysis right now is the Berlin Marathon. There were many fewer finishers this year than last, and over 1,000 fewer Boston Qualifiers. Being that it is a mega-marathon (~ 30,000 runners), it has the power to sway the results one way or the other using the methodology employed. It has been presumed that a lower percentage of Berlin qualifiers would do Boston, than would a nearby a North American feeder race. So a better way to account for Berlin is still in the works.

The Big But...
But this is just the beginning, with a database packed full of data, I have a few idears on how to dig deeper into the data and improve the methodology. Stay tuned. And don't give up hope if you're sitting on a BQ with less than 84 seconds!

Table 1: Year vs Year, By Marathon
2015 Qualifying Year2016 Qualifying Year
MarathonFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
Big Cottonwood1,30826224419 %1,52728425217 %
Erie 97831228029 %95931728930 %
Lehigh Valley 1,34436735026 %1,13923521519 %
Berlin 36,1225,7695,45515 %29,0274,5304,30815 %
St. George 5,8181,1981,13720 %5,80699793916 %
Twin Cities 8,8551,01095311 %8,8531,04196711 %
Portland 6,9455044707 %6,4294293956 %
Chicago 38,8543,5273,3149 %40,5814,0043,7629 %
Steamtown 2,16537735917 %2,18443140819 %
Columbus 5,52361156110 %5,44562058111 %
Toronto Waterfront 3,60448745313 %3,97165460115 %
Baystate 1,30430127121 %1,53137835023 %
Marine Corps 23,3851,1701,0735 %19,6877186623 %
New York City 50,1343,9803,7257 %50,4333,6293,4007 %
Indianapolis Monumental 3,52151848314 %3,72559455215 %
Richmond 4,8424414189 %5,09552048710 %
Philadelphia 10,9141,3411,25211 %10,3331,3371,23512 %
California International 6,2381,2921,19519 %5,7931,2911,18520 %
Houston 6,9456986519 %7,1336986489 %
Boston 31,21010,56410,04632 %26,63512,79212,21846 %
TOTAL250,00934,72932,69013 %236,28635,49933,45414 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.

Analysis
Looking at the table above: 250,009 runners finished a 2015 qualifying race, whereas 236,286 finished a 2016 race: 14,000 fewer people. However, more people met the minimum BQ standard 35,499 for the 2016 qualifying year versus 34,729 for the 2015 qualifying year. Moreover, more people met the 1 minute and 2 second cutoff in the 2016 qualifying year so far than did in 2015.

If the Boston Marathon registration opened today - assuming what we assume (see objective and methodology) - there wouldn't be enough spots for everyone. We are assuming there will be 32,690 spots, so we have to make it harder for people to get in. We have to increase the cutoff so that we whittle the 33,454 people (who met the 2015 cutoff in a 2016 qualifying race) down to the 32,690 spots allocated.

Through a numerical modelling approach, the answer to the solution, of what the cutoff should be becomes 84 seconds.

At 84 seconds, 32,711 people will make it into the marathon. (21 more than this year).

At 85 seconds, 32,674 people will make it into the marathon. (16 fewer than this year)

Table 2: Projected qualifiers by AG based on an 84 second cutoff.
AGFinishersBQBQ2015 @62sBQ2016 @84sBQ2016%
F18-3440,2834,9964,7074,60211.4%
F35-3916,2062,3522,2252,17813.4%
F40-4415,7002,3752,2112,15413.7%
F45-4911,7092,4182,2692,20918.9%
F50-547,6771,4991,4191,38818.1%
F55-593,86080475975019.4%
F60-641,57837335635422.4%
F65-6950411211010821.4%
F70-7415232303019.7%
F75-792844414.3%
F80+633350.0%
M18-3438,8974,7624,5234,42711.4%
M35-3921,2332,5722,4112,35211.1%
M40-4423,7513,0542,8682,78911.7%
M45-4920,7553,7363,5153,42516.5%
M50-5416,2482,8412,6522,58315.9%
M55-599,5761,8081,7091,66717.4%
M60-645,0441,0661,01799419.7%
M65-692,09649547647022.4%
M70-7474015414814619.7%
M75-7920135343316.4%
M80+4288819.0%
Total236,28635,49933,45432,67413.8%
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2016 = Number of Runners who met the projected Cutoff for the 2016 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 14s)
4. BQ2016% = Percentage of finishers meeting the projected BQ 20016 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.



Other Interesting Numbers:


Combined, to date - Year vs Year Analysis, By Age Group
2015 Qualifying Year2016 Qualifying Year
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-3441,7424,4274,17910 %40,2834,9964,70712 %
F35-3916,5962,2292,08913 %16,2062,3522,22514 %
F40-4416,2072,3122,17613 %15,7002,3752,21114 %
F45-4912,2042,4442,33119 %11,7092,4182,26919 %
F50-548,1821,5971,50918 %7,6771,4991,41918 %
F55-593,77771768518 %3,86080475920 %
F60-641,61732430919 %1,57837335623 %
F65-6949911410721 %50411211022 %
F70-74132232317 %152323020 %
F75-79195526 %284414 %
F80+72114 %63350 %
M18-3442,6374,6694,41610 %38,8974,7624,52312 %
M35-3922,8072,6082,41211 %21,2332,5722,41111 %
M40-4425,8833,2543,04312 %23,7513,0542,86812 %
M45-4922,0723,6523,43416 %20,7553,7363,51517 %
M50-5417,3182,8292,62415 %16,2482,8412,65216 %
M55-599,8421,7641,66517 %9,5761,8081,70918 %
M60-645,3391,0741,02219 %5,0441,0661,01720 %
M65-692,13847746122 %2,09649547623 %
M70-7475016816021 %74015414820 %
M75-79188353418 %201353417 %
M80+53559 %428819 %
Total250,00934,72932,69013 %236,28635,49933,45414 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Big Massive Appendix with all Feeder Race Analyses:


Big Cottonwood - Year vs Year Analysis
Big Cottonwood 2013Big Cottonwood 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34286474415 %276473914 %
F35-39175393822 %174312917 %
F40-44124383730 %153292416 %
F45-4970171724 %99231818 %
F50-54408820 %62151423 %
F55-59237626 %35131234 %
F60-64143321 %130 %
F65-69111100 %81113 %
F70-7420 %
F75-79
F80+
M18-3415815138 %15716138 %
M35-391021399 %117232017 %
M40-4489101011 %125222117 %
M45-4988282630 %109232220 %
M50-5467191827 %82161620 %
M55-594310819 %70121116 %
M60-64204315 %246521 %
M65-6973343 %154427 %
M70-7410 %42250 %
M75-7921150 %
M80+
Total1,30826224419 %1,52728425217 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Erie Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Erie Marathon 2013Erie Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34144333222 %153413724 %
F35-3973242129 %92222022 %
F40-4471221927 %79312937 %
F45-4965353249 %69292638 %
F50-5431131342 %37171541 %
F55-59167744 %2211941 %
F60-6420 %94444 %
F65-6920 %42250 %
F70-7421150 %
F75-79
F80+
M18-34125323125 %97232324 %
M35-3985191619 %78181621 %
M40-4498312627 %82151417 %
M45-4975262432 %88343236 %
M50-5491332831 %72322433 %
M55-5952171427 %37191951 %
M60-642812932 %27151556 %
M65-69146643 %92222 %
M70-7452240 %
M75-7910 %10 %
M80+111100 %
Total97831228029 %95931728930 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Lehigh Valley - Year vs Year Analysis
Lehigh Valley 2013Lehigh Valley 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34203525025 %179413721 %
F35-3981161620 %93242325 %
F40-4488151416 %67141421 %
F45-4970292941 %59101017 %
F50-5446181635 %385513 %
F55-59188844 %245521 %
F60-64124433 %52240 %
F65-69111100 %54480 %
F70-74
F75-79
F80+
M18-34235636026 %194393317 %
M35-39113272522 %96211920 %
M40-44138312921 %92151516 %
M45-49117353429 %92181617 %
M50-5497232223 %88121011 %
M55-5976262330 %59131220 %
M60-6432121238 %358617 %
M65-69177741 %134431 %
M70-74
M75-79
M80+
Total1,34436735026 %1,13923521519 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Berlin Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Berlin Marathon 2013Berlin Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-342,2342092009 %1,98520819410 %
F35-391,24917216413 %1,00615914715 %
F40-441,67725824415 %1,23119718915 %
F45-491,70632731418 %1,22222821918 %
F50-541,20724622719 %79313812916 %
F55-5948511010421 %360827721 %
F60-64208606029 %144474632 %
F65-6969252435 %42111126 %
F70-74215524 %136538 %
F75-7921150 %21150 %
F80+20 %
M18-345,71562760010 %4,42950347711 %
M35-393,91953047812 %3,20042440013 %
M40-445,19979475214 %4,21962059514 %
M45-495,22497192618 %4,21877073417 %
M50-543,78569564917 %3,20154651516 %
M55-591,93235233417 %1,63229928517 %
M60-6492422521423 %80315515019 %
M65-6937411611430 %333949228 %
M70-74148383725 %148333322 %
M75-79368822 %418820 %
M80+60 %51120 %
Total36,1225,7695,45515 %29,0274,5304,30815 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


St. George Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
St. George Marathon 2013St. George Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-3497215314615 %89413012314 %
F35-3955114113424 %64113812920 %
F40-44433989522 %457918519 %
F45-49261838131 %278686724 %
F50-54228706629 %233413716 %
F55-59124292923 %135272720 %
F60-6467232233 %65141320 %
F65-69112218 %153320 %
F70-7430 %81113 %
F75-7921150 %20 %
F80+
M18-34827868110 %73369628 %
M35-39526978917 %524676312 %
M40-44513968617 %475646113 %
M45-4940611010626 %410958922 %
M50-54334706620 %344827522 %
M55-59298706823 %306535117 %
M60-64149343322 %158242315 %
M65-6963171422 %82181822 %
M70-7439171744 %36111131 %
M75-79101110 %91111 %
M80+10 %10 %
Total5,8181,1981,13720 %5,80699793916 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Twin Cities Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Twin Cities Marathon 2013Twin Cities Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-342,1091951879 %2,1191901819 %
F35-39673878112 %654666310 %
F40-44487686213 %537696512 %
F45-49338575617 %335726720 %
F50-54199393618 %198363518 %
F55-5985212125 %109262523 %
F60-643010723 %3311927 %
F65-6993333 %116545 %
F70-74111100 %10 %
F75-79
F80+
M18-341,9891631588 %1,9261781689 %
M35-3970859527 %70770639 %
M40-4469366578 %67160497 %
M45-49546777213 %564817113 %
M50-54463636314 %465686514 %
M55-59297504716 %295535117 %
M60-64143292820 %140323021 %
M65-6961141423 %61141118 %
M70-74187739 %248833 %
M75-7941125 %31133 %
M80+20 %
Total8,8551,01095311 %8,8531,04196711 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Portland Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Portland Marathon 2013Portland Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-341,55581755 %1,43696886 %
F35-3963236345 %53628285 %
F40-4451144428 %47932296 %
F45-4936034319 %34327237 %
F50-54256292711 %24020198 %
F55-5917912116 %1661095 %
F60-6485101012 %778810 %
F65-6937325 %304413 %
F70-7414117 %122217 %
F75-7950 %50 %
F80+
M18-341,12762575 %1,06465626 %
M35-3952531316 %46219163 %
M40-4452427265 %48024235 %
M45-49383484311 %39431267 %
M50-5431730258 %28920207 %
M55-59214333215 %18514126 %
M60-64128131310 %130201915 %
M65-69549917 %578712 %
M70-7425114 %3210 %
M75-79100 %90 %
M80+40 %30 %
Total6,9455044707 %6,4294293956 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Chicago Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Chicago Marathon 2013Chicago Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-348,9385985636 %9,4397336857 %
F35-392,8512332168 %2,95629828410 %
F40-442,4202302119 %2,6412522399 %
F45-491,52420719713 %1,65122321213 %
F50-541,00512612012 %98112911912 %
F55-59423605814 %473656213 %
F60-64166222213 %178272313 %
F65-69488715 %617711 %
F70-74123325 %142214 %
F75-7920 %
F80+
M18-348,0075765437 %8,0766836488 %
M35-393,5963062878 %3,6713052808 %
M40-443,5823192948 %3,6683573369 %
M45-492,51231930212 %2,72335734012 %
M50-541,97525523612 %2,01728325613 %
M55-591,03313713413 %1,19916215113 %
M60-64511837815 %555797714 %
M65-69184333217 %198323116 %
M70-7451111020 %568814 %
M75-7913118 %192211 %
M80+30 %30 %
Total38,8543,5273,3149 %40,5814,0043,7629 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Steamtown Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Steamtown Marathon 2013Steamtown Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34330423812 %320504815 %
F35-39183323117 %170323118 %
F40-44155242315 %171322917 %
F45-49122262621 %155454227 %
F50-5482191822 %77151317 %
F55-59295517 %285518 %
F60-64103330 %134431 %
F65-6942250 %30 %
F70-74111100 %
F75-7910 %
F80+
M18-34295464315 %328535116 %
M35-39173252414 %184262413 %
M40-44218353114 %189332915 %
M45-49191383719 %192444322 %
M50-54178373620 %160353220 %
M55-59102212121 %104262625 %
M60-6459131220 %55222240 %
M65-69217733 %185528 %
M70-7471114 %102220 %
M75-7931133 %41125 %
M80+30 %10 %
Total2,16537735917 %2,18443140819 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Columbus Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Columbus Marathon 2013Columbus Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-341,3051191088 %1,2391221169 %
F35-39370454011 %41642399 %
F40-4434332319 %34731309 %
F45-49199302915 %230302812 %
F50-54113171614 %148191812 %
F55-59435512 %559815 %
F60-64285414 %296517 %
F65-6950 %101110 %
F70-7420 %30 %
F75-7910 %10 %
F80+
M18-341,3071271189 %1,19412711810 %
M35-3946443388 %45239388 %
M40-4445840337 %426454110 %
M45-49360635916 %348605315 %
M50-54253333012 %269484717 %
M55-59153302919 %158181610 %
M60-6473161622 %77171722 %
M65-69346515 %295517 %
M70-7480 %12118 %
M75-7940 %20 %
M80+
Total5,52361156110 %5,44562058111 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Toronto Waterfront Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Toronto Waterfront Marathon 2013Toronto Waterfront Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-3454557519 %575807213 %
F35-39212383517 %222343214 %
F40-44192373619 %246484418 %
F45-49160272516 %200555025 %
F50-54109302826 %101222020 %
F55-5940111128 %61222134 %
F60-64117764 %194421 %
F65-6921150 %31133 %
F70-7421150 %10 %
F75-79
F80+
M18-3475158527 %832928610 %
M35-39390464111 %386453910 %
M40-44392423810 %429575212 %
M45-49307464314 %349666117 %
M50-54247353414 %265575119 %
M55-59137252418 %156333221 %
M60-6467161624 %80252430 %
M65-69339927 %39121128 %
M70-7440 %51120 %
M75-7920 %20 %
M80+111100 %
Total3,60448745313 %3,97165460115 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Baystate Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Baystate Marathon 2013Baystate Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34220434320 %274665821 %
F35-3987151315 %115302925 %
F40-4476222229 %113242119 %
F45-4960191525 %90323134 %
F50-5439111026 %45151431 %
F55-5923101043 %209840 %
F60-6463350 %61117 %
F65-6920 %32267 %
F70-74
F75-79
F80+
M18-34261544818 %282514516 %
M35-39101222121 %134292720 %
M40-44147292416 %151262517 %
M45-49116231916 %116312824 %
M50-5487201517 %85242327 %
M55-5944141330 %61222236 %
M60-6425121144 %25111144 %
M65-6983338 %84450 %
M70-7421150 %21150 %
M75-7910 %
M80+
Total1,30430127121 %1,53137835023 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Marine Corps Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Marine Corps Marathon 2013Marine Corps Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-344,5112242035 %3,6111321193 %
F35-391,66786815 %1,40533292 %
F40-441,55786755 %1,42558514 %
F45-4998584788 %96269667 %
F50-5470846456 %66929284 %
F55-5930220196 %32713134 %
F60-64116665 %122131210 %
F65-6942212 %48448 %
F70-7470 %13118 %
F75-7910 %20 %
F80+
M18-344,7041911724 %3,50097913 %
M35-392,18877723 %1,81045402 %
M40-442,35582793 %1,85650442 %
M45-491,70488805 %1,51957544 %
M50-541,23965585 %1,12243393 %
M55-5970452467 %69832314 %
M60-64392413910 %36621216 %
M65-6914214139 %17018169 %
M70-74505510 %49336 %
M75-7970 %120 %
M80+41125 %10 %
Total23,3851,1701,0735 %19,6877186623 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


New York City Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
New York City Marathon 2013New York City Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-347,3654384106 %7,5324314055 %
F35-393,2502382197 %3,3782061956 %
F40-443,5283012818 %3,5392612457 %
F45-492,47731729712 %2,64327926010 %
F50-541,66119918711 %1,83520919010 %
F55-59791999412 %89612611813 %
F60-64329413912 %400434211 %
F65-69102161515 %12111119 %
F70-7436338 %43212 %
F75-7930 %91111 %
F80+42125 %21150 %
M18-347,4574434236 %7,2463953735 %
M35-395,0092852625 %4,9392542375 %
M40-445,9854143866 %5,8923323055 %
M45-494,7444163918 %4,6303943738 %
M50-543,8453783479 %3,7623253048 %
M55-591,85719218210 %1,9021741639 %
M60-641,10112512011 %1,04811611211 %
M65-69383464512 %415514812 %
M70-74153211812 %15315138 %
M75-79395410 %38338 %
M80+15117 %100 %
Total50,1343,9803,7257 %50,4333,6293,4007 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Indianapolis Monumental Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Indianapolis Monumental Marathon 2013Indianapolis Monumental Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34629807712 %6501039515 %
F35-39299363512 %296363512 %
F40-44238332812 %244454318 %
F45-49154363422 %153332818 %
F50-54100151515 %113272623 %
F55-5949101020 %616610 %
F60-64428819 %329928 %
F65-6961117 %112218 %
F70-74
F75-7910 %
F80+10 %
M18-34636867712 %611968614 %
M35-3931930278 %377494512 %
M40-44339454212 %354403710 %
M45-49284564917 %301504816 %
M50-54218343416 %243484418 %
M55-59107212120 %153232114 %
M60-6471161521 %73171723 %
M65-692310939 %375514 %
M70-7471114 %103330 %
M75-7920 %
M80+222100 %
Total3,52151848314 %3,72559455215 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Richmond Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Richmond Marathon 2013Richmond Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-341,00391869 %1,15411711010 %
F35-3941827256 %46635327 %
F40-4440726246 %44542399 %
F45-49257303012 %277323212 %
F50-54159222113 %16314149 %
F55-59719913 %91111112 %
F60-6427114 %276622 %
F65-6981113 %62233 %
F70-7430 %21150 %
F75-7910 %
F80+
M18-34819868110 %811878010 %
M35-3938230298 %34920206 %
M40-4440527256 %40241389 %
M45-4935229288 %35336339 %
M50-54255272610 %26026239 %
M55-5914415139 %151212013 %
M60-6480151418 %81161417 %
M65-69293310 %3510926 %
M70-74182211 %193316 %
M75-7940 %30 %
M80+
Total4,8424414189 %5,09552048710 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Philadelphia Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Philadelphia Marathon 2013Philadelphia Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-342,63129127210 %2,37225723810 %
F35-397791029312 %736928612 %
F40-44646737011 %621776911 %
F45-49441868419 %431827818 %
F50-54254514919 %269484316 %
F55-59101222121 %133181713 %
F60-6433426 %409820 %
F65-6982225 %110 %
F70-7441125 %
F75-7910 %
F80+111100 %
M18-342,4762452279 %2,26624222510 %
M35-3992787799 %858978810 %
M40-4487691839 %850888210 %
M45-497041029413 %70513412117 %
M50-54524797514 %5351009317 %
M55-59319646019 %305585418 %
M60-64134282720 %139252417 %
M65-6942101024 %378719 %
M70-74123325 %15117 %
M75-7920 %50 %
M80+10 %30 %
Total10,9141,3411,25211 %10,3331,3371,23512 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


California International Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
California International Marathon 2013California International Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-3498020519119 %85918217420 %
F35-39495847816 %439857718 %
F40-44497949018 %430837117 %
F45-49374786918 %363776618 %
F50-54262514517 %256565120 %
F55-59129272620 %146262114 %
F60-64497714 %46121226 %
F65-69182211 %157747 %
F70-7451120 %134431 %
F75-79
F80+111100 %
M18-3482215714518 %72918117123 %
M35-39540938516 %455767116 %
M40-446241119816 %5511109818 %
M45-4956415614225 %54914212923 %
M50-544331049722 %4451099822 %
M55-59240636226 %250666426 %
M60-64126353326 %143464330 %
M65-6950121224 %72181825 %
M70-7422111150 %237730 %
M75-7961117 %62117 %
M80+20 %21150 %
Total6,2381,2921,19519 %5,7931,2911,18520 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Houston - Year vs Year Analysis
Houston 2014Houston 2015
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-341,00392858 %1,049100969 %
F35-39507666312 %54254509 %
F40-4444443409 %49047439 %
F45-49304444214 %318474213 %
F50-54196292714 %214353315 %
F55-598511911 %112141413 %
F60-6440338 %508816 %
F65-6952240 %62233 %
F70-7420 %40 %
F75-79
F80+
M18-341,21595917 %1,20593857 %
M35-3968138355 %68651457 %
M40-4471052517 %73051476 %
M45-49626716711 %61062559 %
M50-54516615310 %486605912 %
M55-59352443811 %355433811 %
M60-64170302917 %186181810 %
M65-696410914 %658812 %
M70-74163319 %194421 %
M75-7963350 %61117 %
M80+31133 %
Total6,9456986519 %7,1336986489 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Boston - Year vs Year Analysis
Boston 2014Boston 2015
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-344,7791,3771,31828 %4,1671,8701,79243 %
F35-392,04471267233 %1,86990786746 %
F40-442,31376873232 %1,98591285243 %
F45-492,27787884537 %1,83195790449 %
F50-541,48755853536 %1,20560959649 %
F55-5976123422229 %60630629148 %
F60-643421049829 %27014514052 %
F65-69119424034 %91424145 %
F70-74207735 %20111155 %
F75-7943375 %222100 %
F80+10 %10 %
M18-343,7111,4571,39638 %3,2171,6721,62651 %
M35-392,05975071235 %1,74889486049 %
M40-442,53891287334 %2,1091,00495645 %
M45-492,76995089232 %2,4851,2511,18748 %
M50-542,39476871230 %2,05890785842 %
M55-591,73852849629 %1,50066763042 %
M60-641,10631530027 %89939336941 %
M65-6953514213726 %40317517142 %
M70-74164444125 %123504738 %
M75-7941141434 %36151542 %
M80+81113 %103330 %
Total31,21010,56410,04632 %26,63512,79212,21846 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


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