Field size will be 30,000 official entrants for the 120th running of event.BOSTON -- Registration for the 2016 Boston Marathon opens on Monday, September 14, 2015 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The B.A.A. will use the same process to register qualified runners as it used in the 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 Boston Marathons, allowing the fastest qualifiers to register first.BOSTON -- Registration for the 2016 Boston Marathon opens on Monday, September 14, 2015 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The B.A.A. will use the same process to register qualified runners as it used in the 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 Boston Marathons, allowing the fastest qualifiers to register first.
The 2013 Boston Marathon had 27,000 official entrants, the special 118th Boston Marathon in 2014 featured a larger field size of 36,000 entrants, and the 2015 Boston Marathon had a field size of 30,000 official entrants.
More: http://www.baa.org/news-and-press/news-listing/2015/september/registration-for-the-2016-boston-marathon-opens-monday-september-14.aspx
What impact do you see this having on your projections?
ReplyDelete30,000 last year too...so don't think it impacts his analysis.
ReplyDeleteI see Erie expanded its field this year, and generated about 180 extra qualifiers. Lehigh produced fewer, Cottonwood a few more-but not as much as the Lehigh drop. My gut reaction is this probably moves it around 5 seconds looked at in a vacuum. That is assuming the Erie qualifiers are all generally using it for 2016 and not just sitting tight until 2017.
Seems to be about 30 persons per 1 second tick down here close to the qualifying standards. I am trying to tune out until Monday to apply, then tune out another week and a half to find out the cut off, I don't think we will be lucky enough to get an announcement after our "less than 5 minutes" window that they will open a first come first serve window the last week of September.
I'm part of the Lehigh drop :'(. Pulled a hammie at mile 20.5 and limped in. Hopefully it helps someone else here get in! I have very little hope for my earlier time of BQ-40s. Here's hoping that the higher-than-usual # of the Boston re-qualifiers from last year enjoyed their race and had their fill and decide not to run it again...
DeleteSo, Mr. BQ Stats. What is your final prediction for the cutoff time?
ReplyDeleteLooking fwd to your analysis...
Cheers!
I ran Erie, and made a BQ, but my BQ from Pitt was better (-116 seconds). Hope it's enough. Thanks for this site!
ReplyDeleteI also hope your -116 is enough, as I am at -118 (both selfishly and for your sake). We should start an unofficial prediction thread once the last update is posted. I have been thinking, and continue to think it will be between 60 and 90 seconds based on a slightly lower signup rate-I think 2014 &2015 are going to be the peak, however with the recent bumps from Santa Rosa, and Erie having more, I am steering toward the higher end of that range.
ReplyDeleteI wish you are 100% true about it, since I have just BQ -94 seconds. I'm sweating here :/
DeleteI bet. That's right on the edge of these predictions. Hope you make it too....partly because that means I'll have made it :P
Deleteim betting all qualifiers get in... lower appetite and the number of cuts to stay at 30k will be so small that the decision will be no cut beneath bq... the cut went from like 100 seconds to 62 seconds from one year to the next... that's my prediction.
Delete"All qualifiers get in" -> Mmm, don't think so. I hope, but very unlikely.
Delete- In 2012, the acceptance cutoff was drawn at 74 seconds.
- In 2013, there was no cutoff time.
- In 2014, the acceptance cutoff was drawn at 98 seconds
- In 2015, the acceptance cutoff was drawn at 62 seconds
- In 2016, I will throw an average number... 78 seconds (yeah, right)
Crossing fingers already.
Good luck all
I get the feeling BQ isn't updating his model after LVM just yet because he's generating more page hits from anxious borderliners checking for an update every 5 minutes. :)
ReplyDeleteUnofficial totals 207 qualified at Lehigh this year, while 242 qualified last year. Judging from previous entries this should bring the 93 second prediction down by a second or two.
ReplyDelete*crossing fingers*
Delete