Preliminary Boston Marathon 2015 Analysis

The first step of the analysis is harvesting the raw data. This is also the most challenging step for some marathons - Boston specifically; however, the 2015 data has all be safely harvested, and is now ready for complete analysis.

Here are the preliminary stats:

Age Group	Female			Male			Combined
	Finishers	BQ	Rate	Finishers	BQ	Rate	Finishers	BQ	Rate
18-34	4,167	1,900	45.6%	3,217	1,694	52.7%	7,384	3,594	48.7%
35-39	1,869	941	50.3%	1,748	922	52.7%	3,617	1,863	51.5%
40-44	1,985	977	49.2%	2,109	1,065	50.5%	4,094	2,042	49.9%
45-49	1,831	982	53.6%	2,485	1,290	51.9%	4,316	2,272	52.6%
50-54	1,205	642	53.3%	2,058	978	47.5%	3,263	1,620	49.6%
55-59	606	319	52.6%	1,500	716	47.7%	2,106	1,035	49.1%
60-64	270	150	55.6%	899	413	45.9%	1,169	563	48.2%
65-69	91	43	47.3%	403	179	44.4%	494	222	44.9%
70-74	20	11	55.0%	123	52	42.3%	143	63	44.1%
75-79	2	2	100.0%	36	16	44.4%	38	18	47.4%
80+	1	-	0.0%	10	3	30.0%	11	3	27.3%
Total	12,047	5,967	49.5%	14,588	7,328	50.2%	26,635	13,294	49.9%

How to read these numbers:

In total 26,635 runners recorded an official time on the Boston Marathon results website for 2015. Of those 26,635 runners, 13,294 or 49.9% recorded a time that was at or below the minimum Boston Qualifying standard for 2016. 

The BAA results lists participants by their actual age. Qualification for the Boston Marathon is based on your age on the day of the race. The 2015 Boston Marathon was held on April 20. The 2016 Boston Marathon will be held on April 18. Most people who want to qualify for 2016 and ran the Boston Marathon in 2015 will be one year older (only those born on April 19 and April 20 will be the same age). To calculate the Re-qualification percentage, I looked at the age-group the runner will be in next year (2016). 

That is to say, a 44 year old female runner, who ran the 2015 Boston Marathon would need to meet the BQ standards for a 45 year old female (because she will be 45 on the date of the 2016 marathon).

Next Steps

Now that the 2015 data has been harvested and organized, I will compare it to the 2014 and complete the analysis to attempt to predict the projected cutoff of the 2016 Boston Marathon.