Cutoff now trending at 0 seconds. BQ Standard, gets you in the 2016 Marathon

Marathon Analysis to date

	2013			2014
Event	Finishers	BQ	BQ Rate	Finishers	BQ	BQ Rate
Erie Marathon	978	312	31.9%	959	317	33.1%
Berlin Marathon	36,122	5,769	16.0%	29,027	4,530	15.6%
St. George Marathon	5,817	1,198	20.6%	5,805	997	17.2%
Portland Marathon	6,945	504	7.3%	6,429	429	6.7%
Twin Cities Marathon	8,855	1,010	11.4%	8,853	1,041	11.8%
Chicago Marathon	38,854	3,527	9.1%	40,581	4,004	9.9%
Steamtown Marathon	2,165	377	17.4%	2,184	431	19.7%
Baystate Marathon	1,304	301	23.1%	1,531	378	24.7%
Columbus Marathon	5,523	611	11.1%	5,445	620	11.4%
Marine Corp Marathon	23,385	1,170	5.0%	19,687	718	3.6%
Total	129,948	14,779	11.4%	120,501	13,465	11.2%

The feeder marathon analysis has been re-run. Toronto marathon was removed (as it was actually not listed as a feeder marathon). The Marine Corps Marathon and Berlin Marathon have now been added. To date, 10 of the 25 top feeder marathons have been run. The analysis includes all 10 of these marathons.

	2015 Qualifying Year			2016 Qualifying Year
Age Group	Finishers	BQ	BQ2015	Finishers	BQ	BQ2015
F18-34	22,318	1,697	1,595	21,470	1,768	1,649
F35-39	8,336	871	815	7,991	848	799
F40-44	7,730	884	824	7,480	817	767
F45-49	5,620	902	859	5,335	823	781
F50-54	3,868	616	578	3,421	459	427
F55-59	1,709	279	269	1,695	257	243
F60-64	718	142	137	676	135	125
F65-69	229	45	41	227	40	39
F70-74	60	10	10	67	14	13
F75-79	11	2	2	15	1	1
F80+	2	-	-	-	-	-
M18-34	24,357	1,964	1,851	21,629	1,849	1,745
M35-39	12,285	1,209	1,108	11,222	1,042	967
M40-44	13,787	1,519	1,408	12,217	1,294	1,217
M45-49	11,517	1,763	1,668	10,572	1,560	1,470
M50-54	8,722	1,301	1,206	8,024	1,181	1,096
M55-59	4,829	776	738	4,675	698	664
M60-64	2,432	478	453	2,336	396	385
M65-69	955	225	217	965	200	191
M70-74	353	83	81	369	68	67
M75-79	88	12	12	101	13	13
M80+	23	1	1	15	2	2
Total	129,949	14,779	13,873	120,502	13,465	12,661
Notes: 1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014. 2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014. 3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard for their age and gender 4) BQ2015 indicates the number of people who were under the cut-off for the 2015 Boston Marathon. The cut-off was 1minute and 2 seconds below BQ standard. 5) The value BQ2015 under 2016 Qualifying Year header is used for comparison purposes. It indicates the number of people who ran a race in the 2016 qualifying year that had a time under the 2015 cutoff.

General Trends
The Berlin Marathon and Marine Corps Marathon are large marathons, and have influenced the stats considerably. Both of these events had significantly fewer finishers this year, than last year. Additionally, there were fewer people meeting the BQ standards. Using the marathon stats of the completed marathons from the list of 25 feeder marathons, the current trend is a slower BQ cutoff for the 2016 race.

BQ Cutoff for 2016 Marathon

Assumptions:

1. Motivation to apply for the Boston Marathon remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
2. The proportion of applicants from the feeder races remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
3. The feeder races, combined, are an accurate representation of finisher times for most marathons.
4. The allocation of General Entry slots for the 2015 and 2016 Boston Marathon remains the same

If the above assumptions are correct, then 13,873 people from the feeder marathons analyzed to date met the 2015 Boston Marathon cutoff (1 minute and 2 seconds). What would the cutoff have to be in 2016 to ensure the same number of people would qualify?

The answer is currently 0 seconds.

In fact, there are only 13,465 people who have even met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard. Because this is less than 13,873; using the assumptions above, all of these people would gain entrance to the Boston Marathon.

Top 25 Feeder Marathons (Recap by Event Date Order)

Number	Event	2013 DATE	2014 DATE	2015 DATE
1	Erie Marathon	15-Sep-13	14-Sep-14
2	Berlin Marathon	29-Sep-13	28-Sep-14
3	St. George Marathon	5-Oct-13	4-Oct-14
4	Portland Marathon	6-Oct-13	5-Oct-14
5	Twin Cities Marathon	6-Oct-13	5-Oct-14
6	Chicago Marathon	13-Oct-13	12-Oct-14
7	Steamtown Marathon	13-Oct-13	12-Oct-14
8	Baystate Marathon	20-Oct-13	19-Oct-14
9	Columbus Marathon	20-Oct-13	19-Oct-14
10	Marine Corp Marathon	27-Oct-13	26-Oct-14
11	Indianapolis Monumental Marathon	2-Nov-13	1-Nov-14
12	New York City Marathon	3-Nov-13	2-Nov-14
13	Richmond Marathon	16-Nov-13	15-Nov-14
14	Philadelphia Marathon	17-Nov-13	23-Nov-14
15	California International Marathon	8-Dec-13	7-Dec-14
16	Houston Marathon		19-Jan-14	18-Jan-15
17	Boston Marathon		21-Apr-14	20-Apr-15
18	Eugene Marathon		27-Jul-14	10-May-14
19	Bayshore Marathon		24-May-14	23-May-15
20	Mountains 2 Beach Marathon		25-May-14	24-May-15
21	Ottawa Marathon		25-May-14	24-May-15
22	Vermont City Marathon		25-May-14	24-May-15
23	Grandma's Marathon		21-Jun-14	20-Jun-15
24	Santa Rosa Marathon		24-Aug-14	23-Aug-15
25	Lehigh Valley Marathon		7-Sep-14	6-Sep-15