2016 Boston Marathon Cutoff still Trending at 0 seconds. BQ Standard, gets you into the 2016 marathon.

Marathon analysis to date

	2015 Qualifying Year			2016 Qualifying Year
Event	Finishers	BQ	BQ Rate	Finishers	BQ	BQ Rate
Erie Marathon	978	312	31.9%	959	317	33.1%
Berlin Marathon	36,122	5,769	16.0%	29,027	4,530	15.6%
St. George Marathon	5,817	1,198	20.6%	5,805	997	17.2%
Portland Marathon	6,945	504	7.3%	6,429	429	6.7%
Twin Cities Marathon	8,855	1,010	11.4%	8,853	1,041	11.8%
Chicago Marathon	38,854	3,527	9.1%	40,581	4,004	9.9%
Steamtown Marathon	2,165	377	17.4%	2,184	431	19.7%
Baystate Marathon	1,304	301	23.1%	1,531	378	24.7%
Columbus Marathon	5,523	611	11.1%	5,445	620	11.4%
Marine Corps Marathon	23,385	1,170	5.0%	19,687	718	3.6%
Indianapolis Monumental Marathon	3,521	518	14.7%	3,725	594	15.9%
New York City Marathon	50,134	3,980	7.9%	50,433	3,629	7.2%
Total	183,603	19,277	10.5%	174,659	17,688	10.1%
Notes: 1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014. 2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014. 3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard for their age and gender

The feeder marathon has been re-run with data from two additional large and influential marathons: the Indianapolis Monumental Marathon (3500+ participants), and the New York City Marathon (50,000+ participants). To date, 12 of the 25 feeder marathons have been run. The analysis includes all of these marathons.

Breakdown by Age Group

	2015 Qualifying Year			2016 Qualifying Year
Age Group	Finishers	BQ	BQ2015	Finishers	BQ	BQ2015
F18-24	5,115	358	336	5,163	398	370
F25-29	12,420	925	877	12,104	978	911
F30-34	12,777	932	869	12,385	926	868
F35-39	11,885	1,145	1,069	11,665	1,090	1,029
F40-44	11,496	1,218	1,133	11,263	1,123	1,055
F45-49	8,251	1,255	1,190	8,131	1,135	1,069
F50-54	5,629	830	780	5,369	695	643
F55-59	2,549	388	373	2,652	389	367
F60-64	1,089	191	184	1,108	187	176
F65-69	337	62	57	359	53	52
F70-74	96	13	13	110	16	14
F75-79	14	2	2	25	2	2
F80+	6	2	1	3	1	1
M18-24	4,491	318	301	4,006	302	284
M25-29	11,832	992	943	10,604	903	852
M30-34	16,127	1,183	1,107	14,876	1,135	1,068
M35-39	17,613	1,524	1,397	16,538	1,345	1,249
M40-44	20,111	1,978	1,836	18,463	1,666	1,559
M45-49	16,545	2,235	2,108	15,503	2,004	1,891
M50-54	12,785	1,713	1,587	12,029	1,554	1,444
M55-59	6,793	989	941	6,730	895	848
M60-64	3,604	619	588	3,457	529	514
M65-69	1,361	281	271	1,417	256	244
M70-74	513	105	100	532	86	83
M75-79	127	17	16	141	16	16
M80+	38	2	2	27	4	4
Total	183,604	19,277	18,081	174,660	17,688	16,613
Notes: 1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014. 2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014. 3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard for their age and gender 4) BQ2015 indicates the number of people who were under the cut-off for the 2015 Boston Marathon. The cut-off was 1minute and 2 seconds below BQ standard. 5) The Value BQ2015 under 2016 Qualifying Year header is used for comparison purposes. It indicates the number of people who ran a race in the 2016 qualifying year that had a time under the 2015 cutoff.

General Trends

The New York City Marathon, with over 50,000 participants and 3500+ Boston Qualifiers has kept the BQ Cutoff for 2016 down. Conditions were much tougher this year in New York with a strong headwind for most of the event. As a result, fewer people in the aggregate group of feeder marathons are meeting the minimum BQ standard. With that, goes fewer people meeting the 2015 cutoff (BQ - 1m2s).  

BQ Cutoff for 2016 Marathon

Assumptions:

1. Motivation to apply for the Boston Marathon remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
2. The proportion of applicants from the feeder races remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
3. The feeder races, combined, are an accurate representation of finisher times for most marathons.
4. The allocation of General Entry slots for the 2015 and 2016 Boston Marathon remains the same.

If the above assumptions are correct, then 18,081 people from the feeder marathons analyzed to date met the 2015 Boston Marathon cutoff (1 minute and 2 seconds). What would the cutoff have to be in 2016 to ensure the same number of people would qualify?

The answer is currently 0 seconds.
In fact, there are only 17,688 people who have even met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard. Because this is less than 18,081; using the assumptions above, all of these people would gain entrance to the Boston Marathon.

Top 25 Feeder Marathons (Recap by Event Date Order)

Number	Event	2013 DATE	2014 DATE	2015 DATE
1	Erie Marathon	15-Sep-13	14-Sep-14
2	Berlin Marathon	29-Sep-13	28-Sep-14
3	St. George Marathon	5-Oct-13	4-Oct-14
4	Portland Marathon	6-Oct-13	5-Oct-14
5	Twin Cities Marathon	6-Oct-13	5-Oct-14
6	Chicago Marathon	13-Oct-13	12-Oct-14
7	Steamtown Marathon	13-Oct-13	12-Oct-14
8	Baystate Marathon	20-Oct-13	19-Oct-14
9	Columbus Marathon	20-Oct-13	19-Oct-14
10	Marine Corps Marathon	27-Oct-13	26-Oct-14
11	Indianapolis Monumental Marathon	2-Nov-13	1-Nov-14
12	New York City Marathon	3-Nov-13	2-Nov-14
13	Richmond Marathon	16-Nov-13	15-Nov-14
14	Philadelphia Marathon	17-Nov-13	23-Nov-14
15	California International Marathon	8-Dec-13	7-Dec-14
16	Houston Marathon		19-Jan-14	18-Jan-15
17	Boston Marathon		21-Apr-14	20-Apr-15
18	Eugene Marathon		27-Jul-14	10-May-14
19	Bayshore Marathon		24-May-14	23-May-15
20	Mountains 2 Beach Marathon		25-May-14	24-May-15
21	Ottawa Marathon		25-May-14	24-May-15
22	Vermont City Marathon		25-May-14	24-May-15
23	Grandma's Marathon		21-Jun-14	20-Jun-15
24	Santa Rosa Marathon		24-Aug-14	23-Aug-15
25	Lehigh Valley Marathon		7-Sep-14	6-Sep-15