Friday, May 1, 2015

84 Seconds is the Current Boston Marathon Cutoff Prediction for 2016.


The current trend for the 2016 Boston Marathon Cutoff is 84 seconds. (or 85 if you're a pessimist).


The Caveats:
The analysis assumes a lot of assumptions. I have outlined the objective and methodology on this page. Basically, I look at the number of people who qualified for the 2015 race, using the "feeder marathons". To qualify for the 2015 race, participants needed a BQ minus 1m2s. These races were all run last year. I then look at the same races for this year, and see how many people would qualify using the same cutoff.  If fewer people qualify, then I decrease to cutoff (make it easier to qualify), until the same number of people qualify as did last year. Conversely, if more people make the 1m2s cutoff than last year, I increase the cutoff (making it harder to qualify) until the same number of people qualify.

When I first Started...
...the list of 25 feeder marathons posted on the BAA website was different than it is now. I have updated my analysis to use the currently posted marathons. And to that, 20 individual marathon analyses are included at the end of this post.

The Big Wrench...
...in the analysis right now is the Berlin Marathon. There were many fewer finishers this year than last, and over 1,000 fewer Boston Qualifiers. Being that it is a mega-marathon (~ 30,000 runners), it has the power to sway the results one way or the other using the methodology employed. It has been presumed that a lower percentage of Berlin qualifiers would do Boston, than would a nearby a North American feeder race. So a better way to account for Berlin is still in the works.

The Big But...
But this is just the beginning, with a database packed full of data, I have a few idears on how to dig deeper into the data and improve the methodology. Stay tuned. And don't give up hope if you're sitting on a BQ with less than 84 seconds!

Table 1: Year vs Year, By Marathon
2015 Qualifying Year2016 Qualifying Year
MarathonFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
Big Cottonwood1,30826224419 %1,52728425217 %
Erie 97831228029 %95931728930 %
Lehigh Valley 1,34436735026 %1,13923521519 %
Berlin 36,1225,7695,45515 %29,0274,5304,30815 %
St. George 5,8181,1981,13720 %5,80699793916 %
Twin Cities 8,8551,01095311 %8,8531,04196711 %
Portland 6,9455044707 %6,4294293956 %
Chicago 38,8543,5273,3149 %40,5814,0043,7629 %
Steamtown 2,16537735917 %2,18443140819 %
Columbus 5,52361156110 %5,44562058111 %
Toronto Waterfront 3,60448745313 %3,97165460115 %
Baystate 1,30430127121 %1,53137835023 %
Marine Corps 23,3851,1701,0735 %19,6877186623 %
New York City 50,1343,9803,7257 %50,4333,6293,4007 %
Indianapolis Monumental 3,52151848314 %3,72559455215 %
Richmond 4,8424414189 %5,09552048710 %
Philadelphia 10,9141,3411,25211 %10,3331,3371,23512 %
California International 6,2381,2921,19519 %5,7931,2911,18520 %
Houston 6,9456986519 %7,1336986489 %
Boston 31,21010,56410,04632 %26,63512,79212,21846 %
TOTAL250,00934,72932,69013 %236,28635,49933,45414 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.

Analysis
Looking at the table above: 250,009 runners finished a 2015 qualifying race, whereas 236,286 finished a 2016 race: 14,000 fewer people. However, more people met the minimum BQ standard 35,499 for the 2016 qualifying year versus 34,729 for the 2015 qualifying year. Moreover, more people met the 1 minute and 2 second cutoff in the 2016 qualifying year so far than did in 2015.

If the Boston Marathon registration opened today - assuming what we assume (see objective and methodology) - there wouldn't be enough spots for everyone. We are assuming there will be 32,690 spots, so we have to make it harder for people to get in. We have to increase the cutoff so that we whittle the 33,454 people (who met the 2015 cutoff in a 2016 qualifying race) down to the 32,690 spots allocated.

Through a numerical modelling approach, the answer to the solution, of what the cutoff should be becomes 84 seconds.

At 84 seconds, 32,711 people will make it into the marathon. (21 more than this year).

At 85 seconds, 32,674 people will make it into the marathon. (16 fewer than this year)

Table 2: Projected qualifiers by AG based on an 84 second cutoff.
AGFinishersBQBQ2015 @62sBQ2016 @84sBQ2016%
F18-3440,2834,9964,7074,60211.4%
F35-3916,2062,3522,2252,17813.4%
F40-4415,7002,3752,2112,15413.7%
F45-4911,7092,4182,2692,20918.9%
F50-547,6771,4991,4191,38818.1%
F55-593,86080475975019.4%
F60-641,57837335635422.4%
F65-6950411211010821.4%
F70-7415232303019.7%
F75-792844414.3%
F80+633350.0%
M18-3438,8974,7624,5234,42711.4%
M35-3921,2332,5722,4112,35211.1%
M40-4423,7513,0542,8682,78911.7%
M45-4920,7553,7363,5153,42516.5%
M50-5416,2482,8412,6522,58315.9%
M55-599,5761,8081,7091,66717.4%
M60-645,0441,0661,01799419.7%
M65-692,09649547647022.4%
M70-7474015414814619.7%
M75-7920135343316.4%
M80+4288819.0%
Total236,28635,49933,45432,67413.8%
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2016 = Number of Runners who met the projected Cutoff for the 2016 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 14s)
4. BQ2016% = Percentage of finishers meeting the projected BQ 20016 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.



Other Interesting Numbers:


Combined, to date - Year vs Year Analysis, By Age Group
2015 Qualifying Year2016 Qualifying Year
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-3441,7424,4274,17910 %40,2834,9964,70712 %
F35-3916,5962,2292,08913 %16,2062,3522,22514 %
F40-4416,2072,3122,17613 %15,7002,3752,21114 %
F45-4912,2042,4442,33119 %11,7092,4182,26919 %
F50-548,1821,5971,50918 %7,6771,4991,41918 %
F55-593,77771768518 %3,86080475920 %
F60-641,61732430919 %1,57837335623 %
F65-6949911410721 %50411211022 %
F70-74132232317 %152323020 %
F75-79195526 %284414 %
F80+72114 %63350 %
M18-3442,6374,6694,41610 %38,8974,7624,52312 %
M35-3922,8072,6082,41211 %21,2332,5722,41111 %
M40-4425,8833,2543,04312 %23,7513,0542,86812 %
M45-4922,0723,6523,43416 %20,7553,7363,51517 %
M50-5417,3182,8292,62415 %16,2482,8412,65216 %
M55-599,8421,7641,66517 %9,5761,8081,70918 %
M60-645,3391,0741,02219 %5,0441,0661,01720 %
M65-692,13847746122 %2,09649547623 %
M70-7475016816021 %74015414820 %
M75-79188353418 %201353417 %
M80+53559 %428819 %
Total250,00934,72932,69013 %236,28635,49933,45414 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Big Massive Appendix with all Feeder Race Analyses:


Big Cottonwood - Year vs Year Analysis
Big Cottonwood 2013Big Cottonwood 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34286474415 %276473914 %
F35-39175393822 %174312917 %
F40-44124383730 %153292416 %
F45-4970171724 %99231818 %
F50-54408820 %62151423 %
F55-59237626 %35131234 %
F60-64143321 %130 %
F65-69111100 %81113 %
F70-7420 %
F75-79
F80+
M18-3415815138 %15716138 %
M35-391021399 %117232017 %
M40-4489101011 %125222117 %
M45-4988282630 %109232220 %
M50-5467191827 %82161620 %
M55-594310819 %70121116 %
M60-64204315 %246521 %
M65-6973343 %154427 %
M70-7410 %42250 %
M75-7921150 %
M80+
Total1,30826224419 %1,52728425217 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Erie Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Erie Marathon 2013Erie Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34144333222 %153413724 %
F35-3973242129 %92222022 %
F40-4471221927 %79312937 %
F45-4965353249 %69292638 %
F50-5431131342 %37171541 %
F55-59167744 %2211941 %
F60-6420 %94444 %
F65-6920 %42250 %
F70-7421150 %
F75-79
F80+
M18-34125323125 %97232324 %
M35-3985191619 %78181621 %
M40-4498312627 %82151417 %
M45-4975262432 %88343236 %
M50-5491332831 %72322433 %
M55-5952171427 %37191951 %
M60-642812932 %27151556 %
M65-69146643 %92222 %
M70-7452240 %
M75-7910 %10 %
M80+111100 %
Total97831228029 %95931728930 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Lehigh Valley - Year vs Year Analysis
Lehigh Valley 2013Lehigh Valley 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34203525025 %179413721 %
F35-3981161620 %93242325 %
F40-4488151416 %67141421 %
F45-4970292941 %59101017 %
F50-5446181635 %385513 %
F55-59188844 %245521 %
F60-64124433 %52240 %
F65-69111100 %54480 %
F70-74
F75-79
F80+
M18-34235636026 %194393317 %
M35-39113272522 %96211920 %
M40-44138312921 %92151516 %
M45-49117353429 %92181617 %
M50-5497232223 %88121011 %
M55-5976262330 %59131220 %
M60-6432121238 %358617 %
M65-69177741 %134431 %
M70-74
M75-79
M80+
Total1,34436735026 %1,13923521519 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Berlin Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Berlin Marathon 2013Berlin Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-342,2342092009 %1,98520819410 %
F35-391,24917216413 %1,00615914715 %
F40-441,67725824415 %1,23119718915 %
F45-491,70632731418 %1,22222821918 %
F50-541,20724622719 %79313812916 %
F55-5948511010421 %360827721 %
F60-64208606029 %144474632 %
F65-6969252435 %42111126 %
F70-74215524 %136538 %
F75-7921150 %21150 %
F80+20 %
M18-345,71562760010 %4,42950347711 %
M35-393,91953047812 %3,20042440013 %
M40-445,19979475214 %4,21962059514 %
M45-495,22497192618 %4,21877073417 %
M50-543,78569564917 %3,20154651516 %
M55-591,93235233417 %1,63229928517 %
M60-6492422521423 %80315515019 %
M65-6937411611430 %333949228 %
M70-74148383725 %148333322 %
M75-79368822 %418820 %
M80+60 %51120 %
Total36,1225,7695,45515 %29,0274,5304,30815 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


St. George Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
St. George Marathon 2013St. George Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-3497215314615 %89413012314 %
F35-3955114113424 %64113812920 %
F40-44433989522 %457918519 %
F45-49261838131 %278686724 %
F50-54228706629 %233413716 %
F55-59124292923 %135272720 %
F60-6467232233 %65141320 %
F65-69112218 %153320 %
F70-7430 %81113 %
F75-7921150 %20 %
F80+
M18-34827868110 %73369628 %
M35-39526978917 %524676312 %
M40-44513968617 %475646113 %
M45-4940611010626 %410958922 %
M50-54334706620 %344827522 %
M55-59298706823 %306535117 %
M60-64149343322 %158242315 %
M65-6963171422 %82181822 %
M70-7439171744 %36111131 %
M75-79101110 %91111 %
M80+10 %10 %
Total5,8181,1981,13720 %5,80699793916 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Twin Cities Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Twin Cities Marathon 2013Twin Cities Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-342,1091951879 %2,1191901819 %
F35-39673878112 %654666310 %
F40-44487686213 %537696512 %
F45-49338575617 %335726720 %
F50-54199393618 %198363518 %
F55-5985212125 %109262523 %
F60-643010723 %3311927 %
F65-6993333 %116545 %
F70-74111100 %10 %
F75-79
F80+
M18-341,9891631588 %1,9261781689 %
M35-3970859527 %70770639 %
M40-4469366578 %67160497 %
M45-49546777213 %564817113 %
M50-54463636314 %465686514 %
M55-59297504716 %295535117 %
M60-64143292820 %140323021 %
M65-6961141423 %61141118 %
M70-74187739 %248833 %
M75-7941125 %31133 %
M80+20 %
Total8,8551,01095311 %8,8531,04196711 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Portland Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Portland Marathon 2013Portland Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-341,55581755 %1,43696886 %
F35-3963236345 %53628285 %
F40-4451144428 %47932296 %
F45-4936034319 %34327237 %
F50-54256292711 %24020198 %
F55-5917912116 %1661095 %
F60-6485101012 %778810 %
F65-6937325 %304413 %
F70-7414117 %122217 %
F75-7950 %50 %
F80+
M18-341,12762575 %1,06465626 %
M35-3952531316 %46219163 %
M40-4452427265 %48024235 %
M45-49383484311 %39431267 %
M50-5431730258 %28920207 %
M55-59214333215 %18514126 %
M60-64128131310 %130201915 %
M65-69549917 %578712 %
M70-7425114 %3210 %
M75-79100 %90 %
M80+40 %30 %
Total6,9455044707 %6,4294293956 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Chicago Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Chicago Marathon 2013Chicago Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-348,9385985636 %9,4397336857 %
F35-392,8512332168 %2,95629828410 %
F40-442,4202302119 %2,6412522399 %
F45-491,52420719713 %1,65122321213 %
F50-541,00512612012 %98112911912 %
F55-59423605814 %473656213 %
F60-64166222213 %178272313 %
F65-69488715 %617711 %
F70-74123325 %142214 %
F75-7920 %
F80+
M18-348,0075765437 %8,0766836488 %
M35-393,5963062878 %3,6713052808 %
M40-443,5823192948 %3,6683573369 %
M45-492,51231930212 %2,72335734012 %
M50-541,97525523612 %2,01728325613 %
M55-591,03313713413 %1,19916215113 %
M60-64511837815 %555797714 %
M65-69184333217 %198323116 %
M70-7451111020 %568814 %
M75-7913118 %192211 %
M80+30 %30 %
Total38,8543,5273,3149 %40,5814,0043,7629 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Steamtown Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Steamtown Marathon 2013Steamtown Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34330423812 %320504815 %
F35-39183323117 %170323118 %
F40-44155242315 %171322917 %
F45-49122262621 %155454227 %
F50-5482191822 %77151317 %
F55-59295517 %285518 %
F60-64103330 %134431 %
F65-6942250 %30 %
F70-74111100 %
F75-7910 %
F80+
M18-34295464315 %328535116 %
M35-39173252414 %184262413 %
M40-44218353114 %189332915 %
M45-49191383719 %192444322 %
M50-54178373620 %160353220 %
M55-59102212121 %104262625 %
M60-6459131220 %55222240 %
M65-69217733 %185528 %
M70-7471114 %102220 %
M75-7931133 %41125 %
M80+30 %10 %
Total2,16537735917 %2,18443140819 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Columbus Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Columbus Marathon 2013Columbus Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-341,3051191088 %1,2391221169 %
F35-39370454011 %41642399 %
F40-4434332319 %34731309 %
F45-49199302915 %230302812 %
F50-54113171614 %148191812 %
F55-59435512 %559815 %
F60-64285414 %296517 %
F65-6950 %101110 %
F70-7420 %30 %
F75-7910 %10 %
F80+
M18-341,3071271189 %1,19412711810 %
M35-3946443388 %45239388 %
M40-4445840337 %426454110 %
M45-49360635916 %348605315 %
M50-54253333012 %269484717 %
M55-59153302919 %158181610 %
M60-6473161622 %77171722 %
M65-69346515 %295517 %
M70-7480 %12118 %
M75-7940 %20 %
M80+
Total5,52361156110 %5,44562058111 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Toronto Waterfront Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Toronto Waterfront Marathon 2013Toronto Waterfront Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-3454557519 %575807213 %
F35-39212383517 %222343214 %
F40-44192373619 %246484418 %
F45-49160272516 %200555025 %
F50-54109302826 %101222020 %
F55-5940111128 %61222134 %
F60-64117764 %194421 %
F65-6921150 %31133 %
F70-7421150 %10 %
F75-79
F80+
M18-3475158527 %832928610 %
M35-39390464111 %386453910 %
M40-44392423810 %429575212 %
M45-49307464314 %349666117 %
M50-54247353414 %265575119 %
M55-59137252418 %156333221 %
M60-6467161624 %80252430 %
M65-69339927 %39121128 %
M70-7440 %51120 %
M75-7920 %20 %
M80+111100 %
Total3,60448745313 %3,97165460115 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Baystate Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Baystate Marathon 2013Baystate Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34220434320 %274665821 %
F35-3987151315 %115302925 %
F40-4476222229 %113242119 %
F45-4960191525 %90323134 %
F50-5439111026 %45151431 %
F55-5923101043 %209840 %
F60-6463350 %61117 %
F65-6920 %32267 %
F70-74
F75-79
F80+
M18-34261544818 %282514516 %
M35-39101222121 %134292720 %
M40-44147292416 %151262517 %
M45-49116231916 %116312824 %
M50-5487201517 %85242327 %
M55-5944141330 %61222236 %
M60-6425121144 %25111144 %
M65-6983338 %84450 %
M70-7421150 %21150 %
M75-7910 %
M80+
Total1,30430127121 %1,53137835023 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Marine Corps Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Marine Corps Marathon 2013Marine Corps Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-344,5112242035 %3,6111321193 %
F35-391,66786815 %1,40533292 %
F40-441,55786755 %1,42558514 %
F45-4998584788 %96269667 %
F50-5470846456 %66929284 %
F55-5930220196 %32713134 %
F60-64116665 %122131210 %
F65-6942212 %48448 %
F70-7470 %13118 %
F75-7910 %20 %
F80+
M18-344,7041911724 %3,50097913 %
M35-392,18877723 %1,81045402 %
M40-442,35582793 %1,85650442 %
M45-491,70488805 %1,51957544 %
M50-541,23965585 %1,12243393 %
M55-5970452467 %69832314 %
M60-64392413910 %36621216 %
M65-6914214139 %17018169 %
M70-74505510 %49336 %
M75-7970 %120 %
M80+41125 %10 %
Total23,3851,1701,0735 %19,6877186623 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


New York City Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
New York City Marathon 2013New York City Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-347,3654384106 %7,5324314055 %
F35-393,2502382197 %3,3782061956 %
F40-443,5283012818 %3,5392612457 %
F45-492,47731729712 %2,64327926010 %
F50-541,66119918711 %1,83520919010 %
F55-59791999412 %89612611813 %
F60-64329413912 %400434211 %
F65-69102161515 %12111119 %
F70-7436338 %43212 %
F75-7930 %91111 %
F80+42125 %21150 %
M18-347,4574434236 %7,2463953735 %
M35-395,0092852625 %4,9392542375 %
M40-445,9854143866 %5,8923323055 %
M45-494,7444163918 %4,6303943738 %
M50-543,8453783479 %3,7623253048 %
M55-591,85719218210 %1,9021741639 %
M60-641,10112512011 %1,04811611211 %
M65-69383464512 %415514812 %
M70-74153211812 %15315138 %
M75-79395410 %38338 %
M80+15117 %100 %
Total50,1343,9803,7257 %50,4333,6293,4007 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Indianapolis Monumental Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Indianapolis Monumental Marathon 2013Indianapolis Monumental Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-34629807712 %6501039515 %
F35-39299363512 %296363512 %
F40-44238332812 %244454318 %
F45-49154363422 %153332818 %
F50-54100151515 %113272623 %
F55-5949101020 %616610 %
F60-64428819 %329928 %
F65-6961117 %112218 %
F70-74
F75-7910 %
F80+10 %
M18-34636867712 %611968614 %
M35-3931930278 %377494512 %
M40-44339454212 %354403710 %
M45-49284564917 %301504816 %
M50-54218343416 %243484418 %
M55-59107212120 %153232114 %
M60-6471161521 %73171723 %
M65-692310939 %375514 %
M70-7471114 %103330 %
M75-7920 %
M80+222100 %
Total3,52151848314 %3,72559455215 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Richmond Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Richmond Marathon 2013Richmond Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-341,00391869 %1,15411711010 %
F35-3941827256 %46635327 %
F40-4440726246 %44542399 %
F45-49257303012 %277323212 %
F50-54159222113 %16314149 %
F55-59719913 %91111112 %
F60-6427114 %276622 %
F65-6981113 %62233 %
F70-7430 %21150 %
F75-7910 %
F80+
M18-34819868110 %811878010 %
M35-3938230298 %34920206 %
M40-4440527256 %40241389 %
M45-4935229288 %35336339 %
M50-54255272610 %26026239 %
M55-5914415139 %151212013 %
M60-6480151418 %81161417 %
M65-69293310 %3510926 %
M70-74182211 %193316 %
M75-7940 %30 %
M80+
Total4,8424414189 %5,09552048710 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Philadelphia Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
Philadelphia Marathon 2013Philadelphia Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-342,63129127210 %2,37225723810 %
F35-397791029312 %736928612 %
F40-44646737011 %621776911 %
F45-49441868419 %431827818 %
F50-54254514919 %269484316 %
F55-59101222121 %133181713 %
F60-6433426 %409820 %
F65-6982225 %110 %
F70-7441125 %
F75-7910 %
F80+111100 %
M18-342,4762452279 %2,26624222510 %
M35-3992787799 %858978810 %
M40-4487691839 %850888210 %
M45-497041029413 %70513412117 %
M50-54524797514 %5351009317 %
M55-59319646019 %305585418 %
M60-64134282720 %139252417 %
M65-6942101024 %378719 %
M70-74123325 %15117 %
M75-7920 %50 %
M80+10 %30 %
Total10,9141,3411,25211 %10,3331,3371,23512 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


California International Marathon - Year vs Year Analysis
California International Marathon 2013California International Marathon 2014
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-3498020519119 %85918217420 %
F35-39495847816 %439857718 %
F40-44497949018 %430837117 %
F45-49374786918 %363776618 %
F50-54262514517 %256565120 %
F55-59129272620 %146262114 %
F60-64497714 %46121226 %
F65-69182211 %157747 %
F70-7451120 %134431 %
F75-79
F80+111100 %
M18-3482215714518 %72918117123 %
M35-39540938516 %455767116 %
M40-446241119816 %5511109818 %
M45-4956415614225 %54914212923 %
M50-544331049722 %4451099822 %
M55-59240636226 %250666426 %
M60-64126353326 %143464330 %
M65-6950121224 %72181825 %
M70-7422111150 %237730 %
M75-7961117 %62117 %
M80+20 %21150 %
Total6,2381,2921,19519 %5,7931,2911,18520 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Houston - Year vs Year Analysis
Houston 2014Houston 2015
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-341,00392858 %1,049100969 %
F35-39507666312 %54254509 %
F40-4444443409 %49047439 %
F45-49304444214 %318474213 %
F50-54196292714 %214353315 %
F55-598511911 %112141413 %
F60-6440338 %508816 %
F65-6952240 %62233 %
F70-7420 %40 %
F75-79
F80+
M18-341,21595917 %1,20593857 %
M35-3968138355 %68651457 %
M40-4471052517 %73051476 %
M45-49626716711 %61062559 %
M50-54516615310 %486605912 %
M55-59352443811 %355433811 %
M60-64170302917 %186181810 %
M65-696410914 %658812 %
M70-74163319 %194421 %
M75-7963350 %61117 %
M80+31133 %
Total6,9456986519 %7,1336986489 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


Boston - Year vs Year Analysis
Boston 2014Boston 2015
AGFinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%FinishersBQBQ2015BQ2015%
F18-344,7791,3771,31828 %4,1671,8701,79243 %
F35-392,04471267233 %1,86990786746 %
F40-442,31376873232 %1,98591285243 %
F45-492,27787884537 %1,83195790449 %
F50-541,48755853536 %1,20560959649 %
F55-5976123422229 %60630629148 %
F60-643421049829 %27014514052 %
F65-69119424034 %91424145 %
F70-74207735 %20111155 %
F75-7943375 %222100 %
F80+10 %10 %
M18-343,7111,4571,39638 %3,2171,6721,62651 %
M35-392,05975071235 %1,74889486049 %
M40-442,53891287334 %2,1091,00495645 %
M45-492,76995089232 %2,4851,2511,18748 %
M50-542,39476871230 %2,05890785842 %
M55-591,73852849629 %1,50066763042 %
M60-641,10631530027 %89939336941 %
M65-6953514213726 %40317517142 %
M70-74164444125 %123504738 %
M75-7941141434 %36151542 %
M80+81113 %103330 %
Total31,21010,56410,04632 %26,63512,79212,21846 %
Notes:
1. BQ = Number of Runners who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard
2. BQ2015 = Number of Runners who met the Cutoff for the 2015 Boston Marathon (BQ minus 1m 2s)
3. BQ2015% = Percentage of finishers meeting the BQ 20015 cutoff time.
4. AG = Age Group on the day of the feeder race, not the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.
   This is a small source of error, as a person may "age-up" for the subsequent year's Boston Marathon.


13 comments:

  1. great analysis, thank you. Are you able to quantify how much every 5 or 10 seconds increases the confidence level ? Or does the confidence level go to 95% or 99% with a margin of error of x seconds ? I realize this is the first year and it's a work in process, but any additional info would be great. Thank you !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your guess is as good as mine. It's not a true statistical exercise. It's more of a number crunching exercise. I do have some ideas on how to improve the analysis, and further validate it.

      Delete
  2. Thanks for doing this! It's very cool to read all of this!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. You mentioned that the 84 seconds is based on 32,711 making it into the marathon, based on 32,690 making it in 2015 year.

    But according to the BAA site, there were only 30,251 admitted for 2015, and I think only 24,000 were qualifiers.

    I'm not a numbers person at all, but is there a way to adjust the numbers to reflect if the entry field is closer to 30,000 (with 24,000 qualifiers).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're right. I use 32,711 as the number. But obviously not all of those people apply or run Boston. If 50% of the field is from the 25 Feeder Marathons, I am assuming that the distribution of finish times is evenly distributed through those people.

      Delete
  4. What was your post-2014 Boston/London cutoff prediction for the 2015 BM?

    ReplyDelete
  5. This blog wasn't started until October 2014.

    The first prediction for the 2015 Boston cutoff was made on October 27, 2014. It was BQ - 1:08, which turned out very close to the actual 2015 cutoff, BQ - 1:02.

    Note: I am not the blog author.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I currently have a BQ -116 Seconds. Should I be sweating it? It would be my first BM, and I would love to go. Thanks for this site!

    ReplyDelete
  7. How does your analysis retrospectively predict the 2014 (1:38) and 2015 (1:02) cut-offs?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I haven't done that analysis. I would need to extract all the previous race results for 2013 and 2014... and that would take a lot of time.

      Delete
  8. Looking forward to the updates after Grandma's Marathon. Do you happen to know if the Ventura Marathon in Sept will be counted in the cutoff time? I heard it was a last second qualifier for 2016. Thanks again for all your hard work and analysis! Hoping my 2min58sec will be enough for next year.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I might have missed it, but it didn't seem that the analysis takes into account the status of some marathons as a 'double'. For example, A 2013 BQ at Erie gets you the right to register for Boston 2014 and then again in 2015. Likewise, a 2014 BQ at Erie gets you into Boston 2015 and 2016. However, now that the registration date for 2016 has been pushed back 1 week later than it usually is, a 2015 Erie BQ will 'only' get you into Boston 2016.

    A double happens when the race is run during the ~2 week period between the start/finish of Boston Registration. In years past when registration remained open for months there were many races that could be doubles. After the shift of registration this year, there will be a different set of races that become doubles (like Rochester on 9/20).

    ReplyDelete
  10. i think is it article very good news and i happy and ctrl=D

    ReplyDelete