PLEASE NOTE: This page is getting a lot of traffic. It is outdated. Please Go to the Front Page of this Blog to get the most current Boston Qualifying Cutoff Time:
http://boston-qualifier-stats.blogspot.com
Thank you!
This is the original post of this page:
----
Additional analysis, after the 2014 Marine Corps Marathon results shows that the Boston Marathon cutoff trend is now at BQ minus 68 seconds.
The MCM marathon had considerably less entrants this year than last year. This resulted in fewer people meeting the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard. On top of that, a lower percentage of runners met the standard at the 2014 run versus the 2013 run.
Analysis of top feeder marathons to date:
Event
|
2014
Date |
2013 Participants
|
2013
BQs |
2014 Participants
|
2014
BQs |
Erie Marathon
|
September 9
|
978
|
312
|
959
|
317
|
St. George Marathon
|
October 4
|
5,817
|
1,198
|
5,805
|
997
|
Portland Marathon
|
October 5
|
6,945
|
504
|
6,429
|
429
|
Twin Cities Marathon
|
October 5
|
8,855
|
1,010
|
8,853
|
1,041
|
Chicago Marathon
|
October 12
|
38,854
|
3,527
|
40,581
|
4,004
|
Steamtown Marathon
|
October 12
|
2,165
|
377
|
2,184
|
431
|
Baystate Marathon
|
October 19
|
1,304
|
301
|
1,531
|
378
|
Columbus Marathon
|
October 19
|
5,523
|
611
|
5,445
|
620
|
Toronto Waterfront Marathon
|
October 19
|
3,604
|
487
|
3,971
|
654
|
Marine Corps Marathon
|
October 26
|
23,385
|
1,170
|
19,687
|
718
|
Total
|
97,430
|
9,497
|
95,445
|
9,589
|
|
Notes:
1) Participants = Finishers with a finish time 2) BQ = Participants who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard for their age and gender |
|||||
Aggregate data from last year's editions (2013) of these marathons:
2013 Data for the selected races.
|
|||||
Age Group
|
PARTICIPANTS
|
BQ
|
BQ2014
|
BQ/Σ
|
BQ2014/ Σ
|
F18-24
|
4,421
|
308
|
285
|
7.0%
|
6.4%
|
F25-29
|
8,355
|
613
|
578
|
7.3%
|
6.9%
|
F30-34
|
7,853
|
624
|
583
|
7.9%
|
7.4%
|
F35-39
|
7,299
|
737
|
686
|
10.1%
|
9.4%
|
F40-44
|
6,245
|
663
|
616
|
10.6%
|
9.9%
|
F45-49
|
4,074
|
602
|
570
|
14.8%
|
14.0%
|
F50-54
|
2,770
|
400
|
379
|
14.4%
|
13.7%
|
F55-59
|
1,264
|
180
|
176
|
14.2%
|
13.9%
|
F60-64
|
521
|
89
|
84
|
17.1%
|
16.1%
|
F65-69
|
162
|
21
|
18
|
13.0%
|
11.1%
|
F70-74
|
41
|
6
|
6
|
14.6%
|
14.6%
|
F75-79
|
9
|
1
|
1
|
11.1%
|
11.1%
|
F80+
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
|||
M18-24
|
3,774
|
254
|
243
|
6.7%
|
6.4%
|
M25-29
|
6,959
|
551
|
520
|
7.9%
|
7.5%
|
M30-34
|
8,660
|
590
|
540
|
6.8%
|
6.2%
|
M35-39
|
8,756
|
725
|
671
|
8.3%
|
7.7%
|
M40-44
|
8,980
|
767
|
694
|
8.5%
|
7.7%
|
M45-49
|
6,600
|
838
|
785
|
12.7%
|
11.9%
|
M50-54
|
5,184
|
641
|
591
|
12.4%
|
11.4%
|
M55-59
|
3,034
|
449
|
428
|
14.8%
|
14.1%
|
M60-64
|
1,575
|
269
|
255
|
17.1%
|
16.2%
|
M65-69
|
614
|
118
|
112
|
19.2%
|
18.2%
|
M70-74
|
209
|
45
|
44
|
21.5%
|
21.1%
|
M75-79
|
54
|
4
|
4
|
7.4%
|
7.4%
|
M80+
|
18
|
2
|
2
|
11.1%
|
11.1%
|
Total
|
97,431
|
9,497
|
8,871
|
9.7%
|
9.1%
|
Notes:
BQ2014 = Participants who met the BQ Standard for 2014, which was BQ Standard minus 1 minute 02 seconds. |
|||||
Aggregate data from this year's editions (2014) of these marathons:
2014 Data for the selected races
|
|||||
Age Group
|
PARTICIPANTS
|
BQ
|
BQ2014
|
BQ/ Σ
|
BQ2014/ Σ
|
F18-24
|
4,344
|
334
|
309
|
7.7%
|
7.1%
|
F25-29
|
8,124
|
666
|
619
|
8.2%
|
7.6%
|
F30-34
|
7,592
|
640
|
599
|
8.4%
|
7.9%
|
F35-39
|
7,207
|
723
|
684
|
10.0%
|
9.5%
|
F40-44
|
6,495
|
668
|
622
|
10.3%
|
9.6%
|
F45-49
|
4,313
|
650
|
612
|
15.1%
|
14.2%
|
F50-54
|
2,729
|
343
|
318
|
12.6%
|
11.7%
|
F55-59
|
1,396
|
197
|
187
|
14.1%
|
13.4%
|
F60-64
|
551
|
92
|
83
|
16.7%
|
15.1%
|
F65-69
|
188
|
30
|
29
|
16.0%
|
15.4%
|
F70-74
|
55
|
8
|
8
|
14.5%
|
14.5%
|
F75-79
|
13
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
||
F80+
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
|||
M18-24
|
3,312
|
252
|
235
|
7.6%
|
7.1%
|
M25-29
|
6,513
|
572
|
539
|
8.8%
|
8.3%
|
M30-34
|
8,207
|
614
|
580
|
7.5%
|
7.1%
|
M35-39
|
8,408
|
663
|
606
|
7.9%
|
7.2%
|
M40-44
|
8,427
|
731
|
674
|
8.7%
|
8.0%
|
M45-49
|
6,703
|
856
|
797
|
12.8%
|
11.9%
|
M50-54
|
5,088
|
692
|
632
|
13.6%
|
12.4%
|
M55-59
|
3,199
|
432
|
411
|
13.5%
|
12.8%
|
M60-64
|
1,613
|
266
|
259
|
16.5%
|
16.1%
|
M65-69
|
671
|
118
|
110
|
17.6%
|
16.4%
|
M70-74
|
226
|
36
|
35
|
15.9%
|
15.5%
|
M75-79
|
62
|
5
|
5
|
8.1%
|
8.1%
|
M80+
|
10
|
1
|
1
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
Total
|
95,446
|
9,589
|
8,954
|
10.0%
|
9.4%
|
Notes:
BQ2014 = Participants who met the BQ Standard for 2014, which was BQ Standard minus 1 minute 02 seconds. |
|||||
The BQ cutoff can be predicted by looking at the total number of people who raced in 2013 autumn races and met the cutoff for the 2015 race (called BQ2014 in the tables above - 2014 being the application year), and projecting a cutoff for the 2016 race so that the same number of people qualify.
More simply put, last year at this time, 8871 people were 1m02s under the BQ Standard to meet the BQ cutoff for the 2015 race; how much time difference would be required to ensure 8871 people from this year's events would qualify for the 2016 race?
The answer is 1 minute and 8 seconds. This represents the current cutoff - assuming the trends observed in these feeder 10 marathons hold true for all Boston Qualifying marathons.
Age Group
|
PARTICIPANTS
|
BQ2015
|
BQ68s/ Σ
|
F18-24
|
4,344
|
307
|
7.1%
|
F25-29
|
8,124
|
614
|
7.6%
|
F30-34
|
7,592
|
594
|
7.8%
|
F35-39
|
7,207
|
678
|
9.4%
|
F40-44
|
6,495
|
618
|
9.5%
|
F45-49
|
4,313
|
605
|
14.0%
|
F50-54
|
2,729
|
314
|
11.5%
|
F55-59
|
1,396
|
187
|
13.4%
|
F60-64
|
551
|
83
|
15.1%
|
F65-69
|
188
|
29
|
15.4%
|
F70-74
|
55
|
8
|
14.5%
|
F75-79
|
13
|
0.0%
|
|
F80+
|
0.0%
|
||
M18-24
|
3,312
|
235
|
7.1%
|
M25-29
|
6,513
|
532
|
8.2%
|
M30-34
|
8,207
|
571
|
7.0%
|
M35-39
|
8,408
|
600
|
7.1%
|
M40-44
|
8,427
|
661
|
7.8%
|
M45-49
|
6,703
|
789
|
11.8%
|
M50-54
|
5,088
|
627
|
12.3%
|
M55-59
|
3,199
|
411
|
12.8%
|
M60-64
|
1,613
|
258
|
16.0%
|
M65-69
|
671
|
110
|
16.4%
|
M70-74
|
226
|
35
|
15.5%
|
M75-79
|
62
|
5
|
8.1%
|
M80+
|
10
|
1
|
10.0%
|
Total
|
95,446
|
8,872
|
9.3%
|
Using a cutoff of 1 minute 8 seconds, 8872 people would qualify for the Boston Marathon based on their 2014 race results. This is approximately equal to the 8871 people who qualified for the Boston Marathon based on the same race results for the 2013 year.
This all assumes:
1) People's motivation for applying to the Boston Marathon remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races .
2) The proportion of applicants from the feeder races remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 Boston Marathon remains the same.
3) The allocation of General Entry slots for the 2015 and 2016 Boston Marathon remains the same.
No comments:
Post a Comment