Friday, October 24, 2014

The Erie Marathon - 3 times more likely to qualify for Boston

While preparing the statistical analysis to determine the projected Boston Marathon cutoff for the 2016 event, an anomaly stood out: The Erie Marathon.

Compared to 8 other "feeder" marathons held in the autumn, this marathon has approximately 3 times more participants meeting the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard.

Age Group
2014 Erie Marathon
8 other 2014 feeder Marathons Combined
 Erie vs
 the Rest
 Participants
 BQ
 BQ Rate
 Participants
 BQ
 BQ Rate
F18-24
 17
 4
23.5%
 3,677
 307
8.3%
 2.8
F25-29
 65
 17
26.2%
 6,628
 596
9.0%
 2.9
F30-34
 71
 20
28.2%
 5,991
 564
9.4%
 3.0
F35-39
 92
 22
23.9%
 5,710
 668
11.7%
 2.0
F40-44
 79
 31
39.2%
 4,991
 579
11.6%
 3.4
F45-49
 69
 29
42.0%
 3,282
 552
16.8%
 2.5
F50-54
 37
 17
45.9%
 2,023
 297
14.7%
 3.1
F55-59
 22
 11
50.0%
 1,047
 173
16.5%
 3.0
F60-64
 9
 4
44.4%
 420
 75
17.9%
 2.5
F65-69
 4
 2
50.0%
 136
 24
17.6%
 2.8
F70-74
 2
 1
50.0%
 40
 6
15.0%
 3.3
F75-79
0
0
-
 11
 0
0.0%
 -  
F80+
0
0
-
0
0
-
-
M18-24
 12
 2
16.7%
 2,684
 231
8.6%
 1.9
M25-29
 31
 4
12.9%
 5,340
 527
9.9%
 1.3
M30-34
 54
 17
31.5%
 6,411
 560
8.7%
 3.6
M35-39
 78
 18
23.1%
 6,520
 600
9.2%
 2.5
M40-44
 82
 15
18.3%
 6,489
 666
10.3%
 1.8
M45-49
 88
 34
38.6%
 5,096
 765
15.0%
 2.6
M50-54
 72
 32
44.4%
 3,894
 617
15.8%
 2.8
M55-59
 37
 19
51.4%
 2,464
 381
15.5%
 3.3
M60-64
 27
 15
55.6%
 1,220
 230
18.9%
 2.9
M65-69
 9
 2
22.2%
 492
 98
19.9%
 1.1
M70-74
0
0
-
 177
 33
18.6%
 -  
M75-79
 1
 0
0.0%
 49
 5
10.2%
 -  
M80+
 1
 1
100.0%
 7
 0
0.0%
-
Total
 959
 317
33.1%
 74,799
 8,554
11.4%
 2.9
Note:
BQ = Met minimum Boston Marathon Qualifying Standard for Age and Gender.


The Erie Marathon website claims that has the second highest percentage of Boston Qualifiers. Second only to the Boston Marathon itself.

Why is this?
a) Faster runners choose to run Erie?
b) The course has favorable conditions for runners?
c) Erie area has a solid running foundation?
d) Something in the water?
e) Course is short? ..or runners use an alternate line to that which was measured?
f) Something else entirely?

3 comments:

  1. I have run the 2013 Erie Marathon in 3:23:49, a BQ by 1:11 for my age group.

    I do not believe the course was short; my GPS watch measured 26.25 miles, and the GPS track matched published course layout. This is shorter than a typical GPS course measurement for an urban marathon, but I noticed zero errors in GPS signal placement. This is very much unlike anything I ran in urban areas, where GPS signal jumps all over the place and significantly adds to recorded distance.

    I think abnormally high BQ rate is due a combination of factors, i.e.:

    1) Faster runners choose to run Erie. This is not a "destination race" in its traditional meaning for anyone but BQ hopefuls. Local running community is vigorous but rather small; I would guess that local runners are proportionally more competitive and time goal-oriented than what you'd find in a larger urban area. At the same time, the race is within easy driving distance from Cleveland, Buffalo and Toronto with their strong running communities.

    2) Favourable course layout: two laps on an almost perfectly flat circuit in a state park. Runners know what to expect on the second lap, and can pace accordingly. The course is uncrowded so you can take the optimal line; it also has few turns (mostly gentle curves) and one hairpin. It is generally shaded and protected from the wind. Temperatures are also generally favourable at the time of the race; 50 to 60F (10 to 16C) when I ran it. There was a slight cooling breeze but no significant wind, which I understand is pretty standard for Erie. Crowd support is minimal but aid stations are well-manned and rather enthusiastic.

    3) Erie's position in the calendar which qualifies for 2 subsequent Boston marathons makes it an atrractive goal race for those trying to BQ.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you for your comment. I have since seen many other GPS records on Garmin Connect, which do in fact verify there is nothing short about the course.

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  2. I agree with Peter's comments. It's a great race that I've been a part of either in the half or the full the past four years. The distance has always been accurate. They end up with near perfect temperatures every year and the course is a great one for speed. It's a shame that they did away with their half this year because it would be a great course to go for a half PR that could qualify you for NYC as the men's standards for guaranteed entry are tougher there than for Boston. Erie has an international feel to it with people coming from all over just to try to qualify. And due to the time it takes place, it can be a 2 BQ for 1 possibility which makes it all the more enticing.

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