2016 Boston Marathon Cutoff Trending at 40 Seconds.

Due to the trouble with the Berlin Marathon, it has been excluded from the analysis. A revised BQ cutoff has been established at 40 seconds.

Analysis to date:

	2015 Qualifying Year			2016 Qualifying Year
Event	Finishers	BQ	BQ Rate	Finishers	BQ	BQ Rate
Erie Marathon	978	312	31.9%	959	317	33.1%
St. George Marathon	5,817	1,198	20.6%	5,805	997	17.2%
Portland Marathon	6,945	504	7.3%	6,429	429	6.7%
Twin Cities Marathon	8,855	1,010	11.4%	8,853	1,041	11.8%
Chicago Marathon	38,854	3,527	9.1%	40,581	4,004	9.9%
Steamtown Marathon	2,165	377	17.4%	2,184	431	19.7%
Baystate Marathon	1,304	301	23.1%	1,531	378	24.7%
Columbus Marathon	5,523	611	11.1%	5,445	620	11.4%
Marine Corp Marathon	23,385	1,170	5.0%	19,687	718	3.6%
Indianapolis Monumental Marathon	3,521	518	14.7%	3,725	594	15.9%
New York City Marathon	50,134	3,980	7.9%	50,433	3,629	7.2%
Total	147,481	13,508	9.2%	145,632	13,158	9.0%
Notes: 1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014. 2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014. 3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard for their age and gender 4) The Berlin Marathon has been excluded from the prediction of the 2016 BQ Cut-off.

Breakdown by Age Group

	2015 Qualifying Year			2016 Qualifying Year
Age Group	Finishers	BQ	BQ2015	Finishers	BQ	BQ2015
F18-24	5,088	355	333	5,140	398	370
F25-29	11,347	819	773	11,173	869	810
F30-34	11,643	832	776	11,354	827	775
F35-39	10,636	973	905	10,659	931	882
F40-44	9,819	960	889	10,032	926	866
F45-49	6,545	928	876	6,909	907	850
F50-54	4,422	584	553	4,576	557	514
F55-59	2,064	278	269	2,292	307	290
F60-64	881	131	124	964	140	130
F65-69	268	37	33	317	42	41
F70-74	75	8	8	97	10	9
F75-79	12	1	1	23	1	1
F80+	4	2	1	3	1	1
M18-24	4,423	315	298	3,959	300	283
M25-29	9,423	748	710	8,801	711	668
M30-34	12,889	803	743	12,297	826	776
M35-39	13,694	994	919	13,338	921	849
M40-44	14,912	1,184	1,084	14,244	1,046	964
M45-49	11,321	1,264	1,182	11,285	1,234	1,157
M50-54	9,000	1,018	938	8,828	1,008	929
M55-59	4,861	637	607	5,098	596	563
M60-64	2,680	394	374	2,654	374	364
M65-69	987	165	157	1,084	162	152
M70-74	365	67	63	384	53	50
M75-79	91	9	8	100	8	8
M80+	32	2	2	22	3	3
Total	147,482	13,508	12,626	145,633	13,158	12,305
Notes: 1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014. 2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014. 3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard for their age and gender 4) BQ2015 indicates the number of people who were under the cut-off for the 2015 Boston Marathon. The cut-off was 1minute and 2 seconds below BQ standard. 5) The Value BQ2015 under 2016 Qualifying Year header is used for comparison purposes. It indicates the number of people who ran a race in the 2016 qualifying year that had a time under the 2015 cutoff.

General Trends

The number of total finishers in the feeder races is lower for the 2016 qualifying year versus the 2015 qualifying year. The number of people meeting the minimum BQ Standard and the 2015 cutoff (1m2s) is lower also for the 2016 qualifying year). This would push the BQ cutoff downwards.

BQ Cutoff for 2016 Marathon

Assumptions:

1. Motivation to apply for the Boston Marathon remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
2. The proportion of applicants from the feeder races remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
3. The feeder races, combined, are an accurate representation of finisher times for most marathons.
4. The allocation of General Entry slots for the 2015 and 2016 Boston Marathon remains the same.

If the above assumptions hold, then 12,626 people from the feeder marathons analyzed to date met the 2015 Boston Marathon cutoff (1 minute and 2 seconds). This value is higher than the 12,305 who met the BQ Standard minus 1m2s so far this year. This implies there is room for additional entrants, the "cutoff" should be decreased.

What would the cutoff have to be in 2016 to ensure the same number of people would qualify?

The answer is currently 40 seconds.

	2015 Qualifying Year			2016 Qualifying Year
Age Group	Finishers	BQ	BQ2015	Finishers	BQ	BQ2016 (@40s)
F18-24	5,088	355	333	5,140	398	380
F25-29	11,347	819	773	11,173	869	835
F30-34	11,643	832	776	11,354	827	795
F35-39	10,636	973	905	10,659	931	903
F40-44	9,819	960	889	10,032	926	886
F45-49	6,545	928	876	6,909	907	871
F50-54	4,422	584	553	4,576	557	528
F55-59	2,064	278	269	2,292	307	299
F60-64	881	131	124	964	140	133
F65-69	268	37	33	317	42	42
F70-74	75	8	8	97	10	9
F75-79	12	1	1	23	1	1
F80+	4	2	1	3	1	1
M18-24	4,423	315	298	3,959	300	291
M25-29	9,423	748	710	8,801	711	683
M30-34	12,889	803	743	12,297	826	801
M35-39	13,694	994	919	13,338	921	876
M40-44	14,912	1,184	1,084	14,244	1,046	990
M45-49	11,321	1,264	1,182	11,285	1,234	1,176
M50-54	9,000	1,018	938	8,828	1,008	955
M55-59	4,861	637	607	5,098	596	574
M60-64	2,680	394	374	2,654	374	369
M65-69	987	165	157	1,084	162	157
M70-74	365	67	63	384	53	51
M75-79	91	9	8	100	8	8
M80+	32	2	2	22	3	3
Total	147,482	13,508	12,626	145,633	13,158	12,617
Notes: 1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014. 2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014. 3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston Qualifying Standard for their age and gender 4) BQ2015 indicates the number of people who were under the cut-off for the 2015 Boston Marathon. The cut-off was 1minute and 2 seconds below BQ standard. 5) The Value BQ2016 shows how many people would qualify if the cut-off was set at BQ minus 40 seconds.

As per above, if the cutoff were adjusted to BQ standard minus 40 seconds, 12617 people would qualify, which is similar to 12626 people who qualified the year prior.  9 runners less. Coincidentally, if the cutoff were set at 39 seconds, the total would be 9 runners more at 12,635.