Analysis to date
2015 Qualifying Year
|
2016 Qualifying Year
|
|||||
Event
|
Finishers
|
BQ
|
BQ
Rate
|
Finishers
|
BQ
|
BQ
Rate
|
Erie Marathon
|
978
|
312
|
31.9%
|
959
|
317
|
33.1%
|
St. George Marathon
|
5,818
|
1,198
|
20.6%
|
5,806
|
997
|
17.2%
|
Portland Marathon
|
6,945
|
504
|
7.3%
|
6,429
|
429
|
6.7%
|
Twin Cities Marathon
|
8,855
|
1,010
|
11.4%
|
8,853
|
1,041
|
11.8%
|
Chicago Marathon
|
38,854
|
3,527
|
9.1%
|
40,581
|
4,004
|
9.9%
|
Steamtown Marathon
|
2,165
|
377
|
17.4%
|
2,184
|
431
|
19.7%
|
Baystate Marathon
|
1,304
|
301
|
23.1%
|
1,531
|
378
|
24.7%
|
Columbus Marathon
|
5,523
|
611
|
11.1%
|
5,445
|
620
|
11.4%
|
Marine Corp Marathon
|
23,385
|
1,170
|
5.0%
|
19,687
|
718
|
3.6%
|
Indianapolis Monumental Marathon
|
3,521
|
518
|
14.7%
|
3,725
|
594
|
15.9%
|
New York City Marathon
|
50,134
|
3,980
|
7.9%
|
50,433
|
3,629
|
7.2%
|
Richmond Marathon
|
4,842
|
441
|
9.1%
|
5,095
|
520
|
10.2%
|
Total
|
152,324
|
13,949
|
9.2%
|
150,728
|
13,678
|
9.1%
|
Notes:
1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior
to September 13, 2014.
2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after
September 13, 2014.
3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston
Qualifying Standard for their age and gender
* The Berlin Marathon has been excluded from the prediction of
the 2016 BQ Cut-off.
|
||||||
Breakdown by Age Group
2015 Qualifying Year
|
2016 Qualifying Year
|
|||||
Age Group
|
Finishers
|
BQ
|
BQ2015
|
Finishers
|
BQ
|
BQ2015
|
F18-24
|
5,332
|
387
|
365
|
5,410
|
430
|
400
|
F25-29
|
11,734
|
855
|
805
|
11,640
|
914
|
855
|
F30-34
|
12,015
|
855
|
798
|
11,771
|
867
|
810
|
F35-39
|
11,054
|
1,000
|
930
|
11,125
|
966
|
914
|
F40-44
|
10,226
|
986
|
913
|
10,477
|
968
|
905
|
F45-49
|
6,802
|
958
|
906
|
7,186
|
939
|
882
|
F50-54
|
4,581
|
606
|
574
|
4,739
|
571
|
528
|
F55-59
|
2,135
|
287
|
278
|
2,383
|
318
|
301
|
F60-64
|
908
|
132
|
125
|
991
|
146
|
136
|
F65-69
|
276
|
38
|
34
|
323
|
44
|
43
|
F70-74
|
78
|
8
|
8
|
99
|
11
|
10
|
F75-79
|
13
|
1
|
1
|
23
|
1
|
1
|
F80+
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
M18-24
|
4,597
|
334
|
316
|
4,125
|
311
|
293
|
M25-29
|
9,729
|
783
|
743
|
9,112
|
747
|
702
|
M30-34
|
13,228
|
835
|
773
|
12,631
|
866
|
812
|
M35-39
|
14,076
|
1,024
|
948
|
13,687
|
941
|
869
|
M40-44
|
15,317
|
1,211
|
1,109
|
14,646
|
1,087
|
1,002
|
M45-49
|
11,673
|
1,293
|
1,210
|
11,638
|
1,270
|
1,190
|
M50-54
|
9,255
|
1,045
|
964
|
9,088
|
1,034
|
952
|
M55-59
|
5,005
|
652
|
620
|
5,249
|
617
|
583
|
M60-64
|
2,760
|
409
|
388
|
2,735
|
390
|
378
|
M65-69
|
1,016
|
168
|
160
|
1,119
|
172
|
161
|
M70-74
|
383
|
69
|
65
|
403
|
56
|
53
|
M75-79
|
95
|
9
|
8
|
103
|
8
|
8
|
M80+
|
32
|
2
|
2
|
22
|
3
|
3
|
Total
|
152,324
|
13,949
|
13,044
|
150,728
|
13,678
|
12,792
|
Notes:
1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014. 2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014.
3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston
Qualifying Standard for their age and gender
4) BQ2015 indicates the number of people who were under the
cut-off for the 2015 Boston Marathon. The cut-off was 1minute and 2 seconds
below BQ standard.
5) The Value BQ2015 under 2016 Qualifying Year header is used for
comparison purposes. It indicates the number of people who ran a race in the
2016 qualifying year that had a time under the 2015 cut-off.
|
||||||
Age Group Comparison for 2016 Race so far
 |
| Based on North American 2016 Boston Qualifying Feeder Race Results up to November 15, 2014. |
General Trends
The number of total finishers in the feeder races is lower for the 2016 qualifying year versus the 2015 qualifying year. The number of people meeting the minimum BQ Standard and the 2015 cutoff (1m2s) is lower also for the 2016 qualifying year). This would push the BQ cutoff downwards.
BQ Cutoff for 2016 Marathon
Assumptions:
- Motivation to apply for the Boston Marathon remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
- The proportion of applicants from the feeder races remains the same for the 2015 and 2016 races.
- The feeder races, combined, are an accurate representation of finisher times for most marathons.
- The allocation of General Entry slots for the 2015 and 2016 Boston Marathon remains the same.
If the above assumptions hold, then 13,044 people from the feeder marathons analyzed to date met the 2015 Boston Marathon cutoff (1 minute and 2 seconds). This value is higher than the 12,792 who met the BQ Standard minus 1m2s so far this year. This implies there is room for additional entrants, the "cutoff" should be decreased.
What would the cutoff have to be in 2016 to ensure the same number of people would qualify?
The answer is currently 45 seconds.
2015 Qualifying Year
|
2016 Qualifying Year
|
|||||
Age Group
|
Finishers
|
BQ
|
BQ2015
|
Finishers
|
BQ
|
BQ2016 (@45s)
|
F18-24
|
5,332
|
387
|
365
|
5,410
|
430
|
410
|
F25-29
|
11,734
|
855
|
805
|
11,640
|
914
|
877
|
F30-34
|
12,015
|
855
|
798
|
11,771
|
867
|
827
|
F35-39
|
11,054
|
1,000
|
930
|
11,125
|
966
|
931
|
F40-44
|
10,226
|
986
|
913
|
10,477
|
968
|
922
|
F45-49
|
6,802
|
958
|
906
|
7,186
|
939
|
898
|
F50-54
|
4,581
|
606
|
574
|
4,739
|
571
|
538
|
F55-59
|
2,135
|
287
|
278
|
2,383
|
318
|
308
|
F60-64
|
908
|
132
|
125
|
991
|
146
|
138
|
F65-69
|
276
|
38
|
34
|
323
|
44
|
44
|
F70-74
|
78
|
8
|
8
|
99
|
11
|
10
|
F75-79
|
13
|
1
|
1
|
23
|
1
|
1
|
F80+
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
M18-24
|
4,597
|
334
|
316
|
4,125
|
311
|
299
|
M25-29
|
9,729
|
783
|
743
|
9,112
|
747
|
717
|
M30-34
|
13,228
|
835
|
773
|
12,631
|
866
|
829
|
M35-39
|
14,076
|
1,024
|
948
|
13,687
|
941
|
890
|
M40-44
|
15,317
|
1,211
|
1,109
|
14,646
|
1,087
|
1,027
|
M45-49
|
11,673
|
1,293
|
1,210
|
11,638
|
1,270
|
1,206
|
M50-54
|
9,255
|
1,045
|
964
|
9,088
|
1,034
|
972
|
M55-59
|
5,005
|
652
|
620
|
5,249
|
617
|
591
|
M60-64
|
2,760
|
409
|
388
|
2,735
|
390
|
382
|
M65-69
|
1,016
|
168
|
160
|
1,119
|
172
|
165
|
M70-74
|
383
|
69
|
65
|
403
|
56
|
54
|
M75-79
|
95
|
9
|
8
|
103
|
8
|
8
|
M80+
|
32
|
2
|
2
|
22
|
3
|
3
|
Total
|
152,324
|
13,949
|
13,044
|
150,728
|
13,678
|
13,048
|
Notes:
1) Races for 2015 Qualifying Year are races that were run prior to September 13, 2014. 2) Races for 2016 Qualifying Year are races that were run after September 13, 2014.
3) BQ indicates the number of people who met the minimum Boston
Qualifying Standard for their age and gender
4) BQ2015 indicates the number of people who were under the
cut-off for the 2015 Boston Marathon. The cut-off was 1minute and 2 seconds
below BQ standard.
5) The Value BQ2016 shows how many people would qualify if the
cut-off was set at BQ minus 45 seconds.
|
||||||
As per above, if the cutoff were adjusted to BQ standard minus 45 seconds, 13048 people would qualify, which is similar to the 13,044 people who qualified the year prior.
Next Up
The Philadelphia Marathon is this weekend, and with over 30000 participants, this event has the power to affect the cutoff qualifying trend.
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